If Being on this List is Official, then I'm an Official Delegate!

The certified delegate report for California now is listed at the Denver Convention website, along with Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Democrats Abroad, District of Columbia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Here's the link to the pdf.

Obama Wins Texas! (finally)

The Obama juggernaut continues to roll on, picking up the 99th delegate in Texas that the campaign has always claimed it had. You might recall that when it came to the final delegate selection at the Iowa and Nevada state conventions, Obama snagged an extra delegate in each one. Over the weekend in Texas, they did it again!

Here is my earlier post, predicting that this would happen.

Since the Texas two-step primary/caucus, the Obama campaign has claimed to have won 38 delegates in the Texas caucuses, in addition to 61 in the Texas primary (a total of 99 to Clinton’s 94). On the other hand, The Green Papers (and hence DemConWatch) has been showing Obama with 37 caucus delegates ever since the Texas County Conventions on March 30.

This appears to be because his percentage of state convention delegates that were chosen at the county conventions was just short of the threshold to earn that 38th delegate.

7239 delegates signed in at the state convention, compared to the 7298 that could have shown up (according to Stephanie Leavitt, the Deputy Finance Director of the Texas Democratic Party).

Specifically, 7,239 delegates signed in; 4,144 for Obama (57 percent) and 3,088 (43 percent) for Clinton. The 99-94 Obama edge doesn’t take in how 35 superdelegates from Texas will vote.

The state convention delegates elected 25 PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates and 42 at-large delegates. When you consider the PLEO and at-large delegates together, the threshold percentages required for election of national delegates becomes clear. With final numbers for Obama between 50 and 60% and with 7239 state convention delegates, the key numbers are:

53.572% (3879 state delegates) => 36 national delegates
54.001% (3910 state delegates) => 37
55.953% (4051 state delegates) => 38
58.001% (4199 state delegates) => 39
58.334% (4223 state delegates) => 40

4144 easily put Obama's count into 38-land. ("The Green Papers" has now updated its count.)

Based on the Burnt Orange Report spreadsheet, Obama had earned 4040 state convention delegates on March 30.

Also note that in its spreadsheet, BOR reported for Senate District 29 in El Paso County:

To be 'challenged' at the TDP convention, resulting in around 22 more delegates for Obama.

The quote marks around the word 'challenged' seem to indicate that this was a mere formality. Adding 22 to the 4040 Obama delegates gave 4062.

So somehow Obama picked up an extra 82 state convention delegates beyond the number selected on March 30 at the district caucuses. Yes We Can!

Watch the Convention Live Online!

Go here to see the how-to.

Do you want to watch the Convention from the comfort of your living room, in your office or at your favorite coffee shop? Aaron Myers, Director of Online Communications, and Brook Colangelo, Director of Technology, explain how the Convention is coming to your living room—literally. ... catch all the action of the Convention live, from gavel-to-gavel and in HD right on your computer, from across town or across the world.

(Media player download required.)

A Day in the Life of a Delegate

The Denver Convention Committee brings us:

Interested to know what delegates will do each day before heading to the main Convention event at the Pepsi Center? Cameron Moody, Deputy CEO for Outside the Hall Operations, breaks down a “day in the life” of a delegate, including an overview of the many different caucus and council meetings taking place at Colorado Convention Center.

Click here to see the show. (Media player download required.)

Convention Week Activities Announced

The Denver Convention Committee today announced some of the details of the events during convention week:

The official Convention events available to the public announced today include an open house at the Pepsi Center, daily Democratic caucus and council meetings and an interfaith gathering to kick off the week. The Convention will also be streamed live in HD on www.DemConvention.com.

Details on each activity and event, together with an overview of the Convention schedule are provided below. While these events are open to the public, registration or advanced ticketing is required. This information will be released in August and posted on www.DemConvention.com.

Daily Convention Schedule and Transportation

Official Convention events will begin in the early morning for delegates, usually with a private meeting of their state or territorial delegation at their hotel. Many delegates will then travel downtown for meetings of one of the Democratic caucuses or councils beginning at 10:00 a.m. at the Colorado Convention Center. The Convention program will gavel open each day at the Pepsi Center beginning at 4:00 p.m. and conclude by 9:00 p.m.

To help minimize the number of vehicles on the road, the DNCC has established an Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) accessible transportation system, 250 buses strong, for delegates and other Convention guests who will be staying in more than 100 Denver area hotels. These shuttles will operate between 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. and again in the late evening, minimizing any impact on rush hour traffic. Delegates will also be provided with passes for the RTD light rail and encouraged to use this efficient and environmentally sustainable transportation option.

Daily Caucus and Council Meetings

The Colorado Convention Center will be the center of daytime activities for delegates attending the Democratic caucuses and councils. These planning and business meetings of many of the different constituent groups within the Party will be open for the public to observe, however seating is limited and advanced registration will be required.

The African American, Asian Pacific Islander American (APIA), Hispanic, LGBT, and Women’s caucuses along with the Disability and Rural councils will each host two meetings during Convention week. For the first time ever, a People of Faith Council will also meet regularly throughout the week. The caucus and council meetings serve as an opportunity for delegates and Party leaders to meet, share information on important issues and discuss voter outreach and future organizing strategy for the Party. These events often feature national Party leaders and other high-profile guests.

Community Open House at the Pepsi Center

For one day during the week prior to the start of the Convention, local residents will be invited to tour the Pepsi Center and see first-hand where history will be made within the Convention hall. Beginning in July, the Pepsi Center will undergo a significant transformation from sports arena to Convention hall and will be equipped with the latest technology, seating for delegates from around the country and infrastructure for media from around the world.

The focal point of the Convention hall is the podium, which will serve as the platform from which the presumptive nominee will accept the nomination and will play host to an impressive list of Party leaders throughout the Convention. Given direction to “break the mold” this cycle, the DNCC production team designed the podium to anchor this technically savvy Convention and reflect throughout the week the energy, historic significance and enthusiasm of the Party and its nominee.

During the open house, local residents will be the first to get a glimpse of the innovative podium design before thousands of delegates and other special guests arrive in Denver. The date of the open house and ticketing information will be released in August.

Interfaith Gathering

To kick-off Convention week in a spirit of unity, the DNCC, in conjunction with the Democratic Party’s Faith in Action (FIA) Initiative, will host an interfaith gathering on Sunday, August 24th, beginning at 2:00 PM at the Wells Fargo Theater located in the Colorado Convention Center. This is the first time a celebration of this nature has been part of a Democratic National Convention and is symbolic of the Party’s desire to bring multiple communities together under its “big tent.” The gathering will include clergy of different faiths, Party leaders, elected officials and local community leaders. Speakers and musical guests will be announced later this summer. The event will be open to the public.

The FIA initiative, founded in 2005 by Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Governor Howard Dean and Convention CEO Daughtry, focuses on ways for the Democratic Party to work with communities of faith to work together to promote the common good.

The DNCC also announced plans today for the following offerings:

Delegate Service Day

In conjunction with Democrats Work, Metro Volunteers and Volunteers of America, the DNCC is coordinating a Delegate Service Day at sites throughout the Denver metro area on Wednesday, August 27th. Projects will range from canned food sorting to neighborhood and park cleanup and tree care. These events will allow delegates to both contribute to and celebrate the people and organizations making positive change and strengthening communities in the city hosting this historic Convention.

This event will serve as the capstone to a much broader service effort for the DNCC. In an effort to give back to the local community, Convention leaders and staff have participated in nine “DNCC Service Days,” contributing more than 560 hours to a variety of local efforts centered on youth, the environment and combined issues of hunger and homelessness.

Online Streaming of Convention

In an effort to engage as many people as possible in the Convention experience, the DNCC is using cutting-edge technology to “bring down the walls” of the Pepsi Center and make this year’s Convention the most accessible and tech-savvy event of its kind. The DNCC’s website, DemConvention.com, will stream live, gavel-to-gavel, HD coverage of the highest quality to a worldwide audience. Among the many features of this feed will be the ability for viewers to select their preferred camera angle, essentially allowing them to direct their own Convention coverage.

Continue to visit the DNCC’s website, www.DemConvention.com throughout the summer for more information on ticketing for the events mentioned above, schedules of events, speaker information and other details on any of the official public events.

The Democratic National Convention, held from August 25-28, 2008, is expected to pump an estimated $160 million into the Denver area’s economy and draw as many as 50,000 visitors to the region.

Only 20 to go after Puerto Rico!

Puerto Rico goes 38-17. And Obama got two new supers today. The number of delegates needed to win the nomination is 2117. Obama has 2071 in the bank. He is guaranteed a minimum 17 pledged delegates in MT and SD, plus 9 more superdelegates that have said they will endorse him by June 4 (Jim Clyburn, Margie Campbell, Deb Kozikowski, plus the 6 Pelosi Club members: President Carter, Nancy and Christine Pelosi, Chris van Hollen, Denise Johnson, and Maria Cantwell).

So that leaves only 20 additional delegates for Obama to win. That can come from other superdelegates, from doing better in MT and SD, and from the 13.5 Edwards delegates.

MSNBC was speculating that Obama will already have lined up just barely enough supers prior to Tuesday night, so that the final delegates awarded in MT and SD will throw him over the total amount needed. Sounds good to me.

New Delegate Math based on Today's RBC Meeting!

Following the Democratic Party Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting today, I have updated the delegate math based on their decisions. The new number of delegates needed to win the nomination is 2117. Obama has 2052 in the bank, and he is guaranteed a bare minimum of 32 pledged delegates based on the allocation rules of the last 3 primaries, plus 8 more superdelegates that have said they will endorse him in June. So that leaves only 25 additional delegates for Obama to win. That can come from other superdelegates, from doing better than the bare minimum in PR, MT and SD, and from the 13.5 Edwards delegates.




I predict Obama will bring it all home on Tuesday night in Montana. Then it's on to the general.

Unity Day with Thom Hartmann

Here's a 5-minute highlight reel from the Unity Day event on Thursday. Neither Laura Spanjian nor I get to talk on this one. It's mostly Thom Hartmann speaking, and he has a lot good to say.

At the end, it does say to "watch this space" for a complete audio podcast and more exclusive video coming soon. I'll bring that to you when it shows up at the Green 960 site.

I need your suggestion...

When I am at the Democratic National Convention as a delegate on the floor of the Pepsi Center, I plan to blog here about my experiences. I will certainly post from the hotel where the California and New York delegations are staying (the Sheraton). But I also want to be able to post from inside the Pepsi Center, including photos that I take there. Carrying around a laptop on the convention floor does not seem advisable nor practical, as there will at times be a crush of people around me. Also I expect to be doing a lot of meeting other delegates on the floor, and conducting convention business. Maybe the good folks at Calitics, the DNC-accredited blog that will be blogging from the California location on the floor, will let me freeload on their bandwidth.

I am able to post to this blog via a special email address that Google gave me. My problem is that I do not have a mobile device that sends email and can include photos in the email. Do you think that such a device would be a good solution? What devices would you recommend from your experience that could fill this bill? Is it easy to compose, send and receive email, as well as attach photos to the email? Is there some other solution that I have not thought of?

Obama needs only 2 more delegates to win! Tomorrow?

Actually he needs 1.5 but because all the Democrats Abroad delegates (who only have half-votes) have spoken, it will take two whole people. Today we learn via DemConWatch that Obama snagged 4 superdelegate endorsements to Clinton's 1. One of them, DNC member Betty Richie of Texas, is a Pelosi Club member, so the count of undeclared Pelosi Club members drops to 5 (Nancy and Christine Pelosi, Jimmy Carter, Chris van Hollen, and Denise Johnson).

So here is how the math adds up right now:





The math closely aligns with the methodology used in the great diaries at DailyKos by PocketNines, most recently here. If you have a concern about how the guaranteed future delegate count is arrived at, PocketNines offers a full explanation.

I use DemConWatch as my main source (as does DailyKos), and DemConWatch uses The Green Papers as its source. For Hillary's superdelegate number, I use the number reported by the Obama results website. The campaign has its finger on the pulse and often shows a few more supers committed to Hillary than DCW does.

The gray and sky-blue shaded cells are for manual input. The values in the gray cells can change but do so infrequently. The values in the blue-shaded cells are the ones that change most often and which I check daily.

Regarding the differences from the Obama website:

I am already counting Donna Edwards as a superdelegate for Obama. She is a lock to win the special election in Maryland on June 17, at which time she becomes a super. She has already endorsed Obama.

I am counting the two pledged Clinton delegates from Maryland and DC who switched to Obama. I agree they are jerks, however, a vote is a vote.

Texas: Here is my diary on the Texas caucus delegate situation from last week. This will be resolved at the state convention on June 7.

Louisiana: Here is a comment I made on another previous diary of mine. Obama's site is wrong. Louisiana has named actual live breathing people for all its delegate slots, so that should settle it.

Comments and suggestions accepted. Can you believe we do this for fun?

Iowa, Nevada … Texas?

Did you see that Obama picked up another national delegate in Nevada on Saturday? The campaign’s tactical organization at the county- and state-level caucuses and conventions continues to deliver results. Can they do it again in Texas on June 7?

Since the day after the Texas two-step primary/caucus, the Obama campaign has claimed to have won 38 delegates in the Texas caucuses, in addition to the 61 in the Texas primary (a total of 99 to Clinton’s 94). On the other hand, The Green Papers (and hence DemConWatch) has been showing Obama with 37 caucus delegates ever since the Texas County Conventions on March 30. This appears to be because his percentage of state convention delegates that were chosen at the county conventions is just short of the threshold to earn that 38th delegate.

Curious, I emailed Stephanie Leavitt, the Deputy Finance Director of the Texas Democratic Party, to find out the number of delegates to the Texas State Democratic Convention on June 5-7. The answer is 7298 delegates. (FWIW, that number does not include the State Democratic Executive Committee and County Chairs.)

Back on March 30, Burnt Orange Report, at this diary, was all over the County Conventions, in which those state delegates were chosen. There are some instructive comments attached to the BOR diary. There I learned this information:

On June 7 the state convention delegates will elect 25 PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates and 42 at-large delegates using separate election criteria. But if you consider the PLEO and at-large delegates together, the threshold percentages required for election of national delegates becomes clear. With final numbers for Obama between 50 and 60% and with 7298 state convention delegates, the key numbers are:

53.572% (3910 state delegates) => 36 national delegates
54.001% (3941 state delegates) => 37
55.953% (4084 state delegates) => 38
58.001% (4233 state delegates) => 39
58.334% (4258 state delegates) => 40

Based on the Burnt Orange Report spreadsheet, Obama has 4040 state convention delegates to Clinton’s 3318. Obama’s share is 55.4% of the 7298 total.

But note that sum of Clinton and Obama state delegates is 7358, not 7298. Perhaps there was some attrition in the final delegate count. In fact, BOR’s spreadsheet shows that some counties elected too many delegates. In any event, assuming that Obama alone had to shed all 60 of the “excess” state delegates, Obama’s minimum would be 3980 delegates (54.5%), still firmly ensconced with at least 37 national delegates.

Also note that in its spreadsheet, BOR reports for Senate District 29 in El Paso County:

To be 'challenged' at the TDP convention, resulting in around 22 more delegates for Obama.

The quote marks around the word 'challenged' seems to indicate that this will be a mere formality. Adding 22 to the 4040 Obama delegates gives 4062. This is just short of the 4084 delegates needed to pick up 38 delegates.

Can Obama snag that 38th delegate that his campaign has been claiming all along? Obama would need somewhere in the range of 22 to 82 Clinton state delegates to switch to him on June 7 to grab it.

Is the Obama campaign counting on their superb organizational skills, as evidenced recently in Nevada and Iowa, to pick up an extra national delegate or two in Texas? We’ll see on June 7.