Kephalos κεφαλος

We Are the 99.9% - Paul Krugman

2011-11-25T16:42:00.000-08:00

Why do Republicans advocate further tax cuts for the very rich even as they warn about deficits and demand drastic cuts in social insurance programs?

Well, aside from shouts of “class warfare!” whenever such questions are raised, the usual answer is that the super-elite are “job creators” — that is, that they make a special contribution to the economy. So what you need to know is that this is bad economics. In fact, it would be bad economics even if America had the idealized, perfect market economy of conservative fantasies. ...

But, you say, the rich pay taxes! Indeed, they do. And they could — and should, from the point of view of the 99.9 percent — be paying substantially more in taxes, not offered even more tax breaks, despite the alleged budget crisis, because of the wonderful things they supposedly do.

Still, don’t some of the very rich get that way by producing innovations that are worth far more to the world than the income they receive? Sure, but if you look at who really makes up the 0.1 percent, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that, by and large, the members of the super-elite are overpaid, not underpaid, for what they do. ...

So should the 99.9 percent hate the 0.1 percent? No, not at all. But they should ignore all the propaganda about “job creators” and demand that the super-elite pay substantially more in taxes.

This Video Makes It Perfectly Clear Why Karl Rove Is Terrified Of Elizabeth Warren

2011-11-25T12:49:00.000-08:00

This Video Makes It Perfectly Clear Why Karl Rove Is Terrified Of Elizabeth Warren:

She’s solid as a rock, and there’s nothing the GOP can attack her on. It’s about time a candidate like Elizabeth Warren came along!

If the Church Were Christian

2011-04-16T10:29:00.000-07:00

In this world of religious fanaticism and widespread intolerance, this by author Philip Gulley is an extremely important message to reinforce:

If the Church were Christian...

1) Jesus would be a model for living rather than an object of worship
2) Affirming our potential would be more important than condemning our brokenness
3) Reconciliation would be valued over judgment
4) Gracious behavior would be more important than right belief
5) Inviting questions would be valued more than supplying answers
6) Encouraging personal exploration would be more important than communal uniformity
7) Meeting needs would be more important than maintaining institutions
8) Peace would be more important than power
9) It would care more about love and less about sex
10) This life would be more important than the afterlife

Could Florida happen again?

2011-02-23T01:26:00.000-08:00

Charles Stewart III of MIT and the Voting Technology Project in their milestone 100th Working Paper (emphasis added):

Nowadays, when I am asked “could Florida happen again?” I answer, “We won’t have any more problems of hanging chad, but I actually think the chance of a large-scale meltdown in many parts of the county are greater now than they were. I at least expect ‘another Florida’ in my lifetime.” The reason I answer this way is that innovation in the core technology of voting has failed to keep up with the challenges of the voting environment. At the same time, the “new” machines purchased with HAVA (Help America Vote Act) money have proven to have shorter life spans than initially estimated. Just as the pregnant chad problem was caused by the failure to keep up the maintenance of old technology that inevitably degrades, the “next Florida” is likely to come when a cash-strapped county somewhere in America lets its maintenance contract lapse, or fails to update its software in time.

In other words, low-tech human failures.

Animated map of nuclear explosions, 1945-1998

2011-02-23T00:50:00.000-08:00

Here is a fascinating map animation that shows every detonation of a nuclear bomb through 1998, by Japanese artist Isao Hashimoto. The Map Scroll posted this last fall when Boing Boing called attention to it and The New Yorker commented:

The New Yorker:

It is the sort of set of pictures that makes you want to read—to learn more, for example, about how it came to be that France exploded more than a tenth of those bombs (two hundred and ten); China blew up forty-five. Not that anyone was taking cover in Provence: if you don’t watch the icons above and below the map, you might think that Algeria, and not France, was the world’s fourth nuclear-armed power (and that Australia, not Britain, was the third). The Gerboise Bleue explosion, of a seventy-kiloton device, took place in 1960, in the Sahara desert, in the midst of the Algerian war; several others followed. (Later, after Algeria gained its independence, France’s tests moved to French Polynesia; its last one was in 1996.)

Supreme Court Justices can be Corrupt Politicians Too

2011-02-06T09:08:00.000-08:00

Few justices allow political ideology to influence their judicial opinions as Scalia and Thomas do.

Not only do we have Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices using their offices to promote ideological political agendas, but also hiding their politically funded income from public view.

Antonin Scalia is the latest to cross the line with an announcement that he plans to address the Tea Party Caucus in the House of Representatives. The New York Times editorial board accused Scalia of becoming a “Justice from the Tea Party,” for his planned participation in their caucus seminar. This isn’t Scalia’s first breach of court practices.

Scalia also spoke at a Koch Industries retreat, sponsored by two billionaire brothers with a history of supporting extreme right-wing positions.

Normally, when judges are personally involved in cases before the court, they recuse themselves because they cannot give an unbiased opinion when they have a conflict of interest. Supreme Court justices are legally exempt from this requirement, but few justices push their involvement with extremists as Scalia and Thomas have.

Who is Jared Lee Loughner?

2011-01-10T06:59:00.000-08:00

This is the best analysis to date on the web of Jared Loughner's motivations:

"At this early stage, I think Loughner is probably best described as a mentally ill or unstable person who was influenced by the rhetoric and demonizing propaganda around him. Ideology may not explain why he allegedly killed, but it could help explain how he selected his target.

One thing that seems clear is that Giffords, who was terribly wounded but survived, was the nearest and most obvious representative of “the government” that Loughner could find."

Even if Jared Loughner acted alone, he heard the rhetoric!

2011-01-09T19:03:00.000-08:00

In the wake of the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, we must end the violent rhetoric that has exploded in American politics. Violent rhetoric has consequences. As stated by Sady Doyle:

It does not matter whether the man who shot Giffords was schizophrenic. There are a lot of schizophrenics who don’t shoot people!

What matters is this: That if you create a culture of violence, if you inflame anger (that’s fine to do, and often necessary!) and direct it toward specific targets (that’s fine to do, and often necessary!) and then point people in the direction of physical violence including gun violence as a solution, someone is going to take your word on that.

Someone is going to be vulnerable enough to your message to take you at your word and shoot someone, because they are:
Young
Stupid
Drunk
High
Just got dumped and full of rage that needs somewhere to go
Just got fired and full of rage that needs somewhere to go
Socially disempowered or disenfranchised, and (especially — in my experience — if they are white men, who are not taught to expect or deal with being socially disempowered) full of rage that needs somewhere to go
Poisoned by a toxic variety of masculinity that equates manhood with power and power with violence
Very unhappy and self-destructive
Isolated and unloved and willing to get attention by any means possible, even negative attention
Or just not thinking right, in some very rare cases due to mental illness, but with the above factors probably contributing, or else THEY ARE JUST NOT THINKING RIGHT
SOMEONE IS GOING TO HEAR THAT, AND IT IS GOING TO RESONATE IN THEIR MINDS THE WRONG WAY. I am all for anger; I am all for, even, pointing at someone and saying “here is a person to be angry at!” What I am not a fan of is going, “do you know what would help with your anger? Second amendment remedies. Guns, they will help with your anger.”

Now we're talking --- James Galbraith goes against the tide

2011-01-04T00:44:00.000-08:00

In my mind I have been questioning the wisdom of raising the retirement age for receiving full Social Security benefits, which seems to be the Beltway CW. Why force people who often won't live a long time to continue working, or in many cases, fruitlessly looking for work, until age 67, 68 or more? Here's an excerpt from Now we're talking --- James Galbraith goes against the tide.

The most dangerous conventional wisdom in the world today is the idea that with an older population, people must work longer and retire with less....

Older people who would like to retire and would do so if they could afford it should get some help. The right step is to reduce, not increase, the full-benefits retirement age. As a rough cut, why not enact a three-year window during which the age for receiving full Social Security benefits would drop to 62 -- providing a voluntary, one-time, grab-it-now bonus for leaving work? Let them go home! With a secure pension and medical care, they will be happier. Young people who need work will be happier. And there will also be more jobs. With pension security, older people will consume services until the end of their lives. They will become, each and every one, an employer.

Obama could take a history lesson from FDR's 1936 re-election

2010-11-07T15:52:00.000-08:00

H.W. Brands, the author of "Traitor to His Class: The Privileged Life and Radical Presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt" has a great opinion piece published today that says what I feel about our president:

Many of Obama's supporters wish he would emulate Roosevelt's combativeness. They have lamented his efforts at bipartisanship, which yielded him little, they say, and cost him the political momentum of 2008. But Obama has generally ignored such counsel. Some of this difference owes to diverging temperaments and personal styles; where Roosevelt relished getting angry in public, Obama apparently does not.

Read the whole thing.

Faux News asks 7 Times, but Fiorina Fails To Give One Solution To Cut Spending

2010-10-17T20:22:00.000-07:00

Via ThinkProgress:

Today on Fox News Sunday, host Chris Wallace gave Fiorina a chance to lay out her actual plan. Touting her “tough, bottom-line business executive” motto, Wallace pointed out that Fiorina also wants “to extend all, all the Bush tax cuts which would add $4 trillion dollars to the deficit…where are you going to find $4 trillion dollars to cut?” But when Fiorina retreated to recycled response of government waste and an earmarks ban, a frustrated Wallace begged Fiorina seven times to “name one single entitlement expenditure you’re willing to cut” because “that’s where the money is.” Fiorina’s only response? “You’re asking a typical political question”.

Video here.

Amnesty International USA in SF for 50th Anniversary Conference

2010-10-17T19:58:00.000-07:00

You can register online for the 50th Anniversary Annual Conference of Amnesty International USA. It will be held in San Francisco on March 18-20, 2011. If you register by January 15, 2011, the regular rate is $90 member, $100 non-member.

March 18 - 20, 2011
The Fairmont Hotel
950 Mason Street
San Francisco, CA 94108

The conference promises amazing speakers, prominent human rights leaders, and special celebrity guests, as well as panel discussions of AIUSA's core human rights campaigns and new strategies for mobilizing the human rights movement on both local and national levels. It's an opportunity to gain skills in human rights advocacy, volunteering and community organizing.

Quote of the Week

2010-10-16T11:10:00.000-07:00

It is not enough to understand, or to see clearly. The future will be shaped in the arena of human activity, by those willing to commit their minds and their bodies to the task.

--Robert F. Kennedy

Can You Decipher This License Plate?

2010-01-23T22:55:00.000-08:00

Wicked : Wonderful & Something Bad

2010-01-05T00:32:00.000-08:00

I went to see the musical, "Wicked," in San Francisco last week. Of course, I latched on to the socio-political themes in the play. Two quotes, both from the character of the Wizard, stuck in my head.

In the show, the Wizard is more manipulative, pretending to be doing things for the good of Oz and to be subjugating the animals for the greater good, but it becomes clear through the course of the evening that he is doing these things only to remain in power, and that his scapegoating of the animals (pun intended) is because
"one sure way to bring people together is to give them a really good enemy."

And from the song, Wonderful, the Wizard sings:

Where I'm from, we believe all sorts of
things that aren't true. We call it - "history."
A man's called a traitor - or liberator.
A rich man's a thief - or philanthropist.
Is one a crusader - or ruthless invader?
It's all in which label
Is able to persist.
There are precious few at ease
With moral ambiguities,
So we act as though they don't exist.

This rings true, for who does not know that "History is written by the victors, not the vanquished," and "One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter"?

Pete Stark: "Medical Unicorns"

2009-08-29T19:19:00.001-07:00

Why are co-ops a non-starter in the health care reform debate? Because they won't work. On Thursday Pete Stark blasted them:

there is no real example of either the regulation [of health co-ops], or how you would establish them, or where they would get enough people to have a purchasing base. So you might as well talk about unicorns.

From a paper released Thursday,

a public health insurance option could also lead to a more transparent market. As long as insurers conceal provider prices, price competition in provider markets is unlikely. As long as coverage protocols and utilization data are concealed, quality competition among plans is unlikely. The coverage protocols and provider payment rates of the public option, on the other hand, would be open to the public. And data on the utilization of health care services under the public plan would be available for expert analysis and reporting, just as Medicare data are now.

Finally, the public option is necessary as a backstop against risk selection. It takes more than simply prohibiting risk selection to stop it. Even with risk adjustment and strong non-discrimination rules, private insurers are likely to find a way to dodge people whose costs are expected to be high in order to protect profitability. The job of the public option, on the other hand, is to accept, not to avoid, risks and to be accountable to the public, not shareholders.

What mcjoan said:

That's what all the fuss is about, why this has become the key element of a proposal for so many people. We want the damned reform to actually work. Co-ops won't make it work, they just aren't going to be robust enough to do the job. Insurance reform is really good, and we very much need that, too, but it isn't going to be enough either. For one thing, does anybody seriously believe that our government could set up a strict regulatory scheme that insurance companies would actually follow? That'd be a first.

Barack Obama's Farewell To Ted Kennedy

2009-08-29T18:08:00.000-07:00

From CBS here is the video from Senator Kennedy's funeral today and a truly magnificent farewell from the President.

Untold stories: thousands of American expats are medically exiled health care refugees

2009-08-29T07:46:00.000-07:00

Moving testimonial about a little-known aspect of our current health-care system:

Cartoon Explains the Public Plan in under 5 Minutes

2009-08-29T07:43:00.000-07:00

Great cartoon does an awesome job of explaining the proposed new federal health insurance plan:

There And Back Again: An Inaugural Adventure

2009-08-26T12:38:00.000-07:00

An Oklahoma meteorology student, Greg Blumberg, had almost the exact same experience at Barack Obama's inauguration that my daughter and I had, including

We got stopped here. This was the end of our trip.

Go take a look. The photos at the site explain better than I could ever do in words what horrendous crowd management conditions existed that day.

What Health Care Overhaul Means For You

2009-08-25T14:45:00.001-07:00

In this NPR article, What Health Care Overhaul Means For You, there is a good interactive visualization of what the healthcare public option proposal would mean for Americans with different levels and types of coverage. One of the commenters there wrote:

It has been my experience that people who have a disdain for helping others have never really had the experience of bad luck or disaster. Though some people who experience difficulties become hardened or bitter against others, most don't. Once these people find themselves in a situation really beyond their control with their heads underwater and struggling to stay afloat, then they start to get the rest of us who have experienced some of the rougher waters of life and who have learned that many times those who suffer don't "deserve it". That’s why I believe in safety nets. …

I don't understand this reluctance of Americans to spend American money on our own people. People had no problem giving Bush/Cheney a trillion dollars for their "war" for a country on the other side of the planet, why aren't you willing to spend our money making sure our own are cared for? All Americans deserve universal health coverage. Every other country that provides health care to all (including people who get sick when visiting their country) provides this care and it costs them a LOT LESS than what Americans are paying right now - and we aren't getting universal care!

I could not agree more.

Hillary Clinton Redefining State Department

2009-08-23T21:10:00.000-07:00

David Rothkopf, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in the Washington Post writes

what is Clinton actually doing? Only overseeing what may be the most profound changes in U.S. foreign policy in two decades -- a transformation that may render the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush mere side notes in a long transition to a meaningful post-Cold War worldview.

The secretary has quietly begun rethinking the very nature of diplomacy and translating that vision into a revitalized State Department, one that approaches U.S. allies and rivals in ways that challenge long-held traditions. And despite the pessimists who invoked the "team of rivals" cliche to predict that President Obama and Clinton would not get along, Hillary has defined a role for herself in the Obamaverse: often bad cop to his good cop, spine stiffener when it comes to tough adversaries and nurturer of new strategies. Recognizing that the 3 a.m. phone calls are going to the White House, she is instead tackling the tough questions that, since the end of the Cold War, have kept America's leaders awake all night.

and

Clinton's State Department can take on a bigger role in tackling the problems of the future -- in particular, how America will lead the world in the century ahead. This approach is both necessary and canny: It recognizes that U.S. policy must change to fulfill Obama's vision and that many high-profile issues such as those of the Middle East have often swamped the careers and aspirations of secretaries of state past.

Which nations will be our key partners? What do you do when many vital partners -- China, for example, and Russia -- are rivals as well? How must America's alliances change as NATO is stretched to the limit? How do we engage with rogue states and old enemies in ways that do not strengthen them and preserve our prerogative to challenge threats? How do we move beyond the diplomacy of men in striped pants speaking only for governments and embrace potent nonstate players and once-disenfranchised peoples?

In searching for answers, Clinton is leaving behind old doctrines and labels. She outlined her new thinking in a recent speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, where she revealed stark differences between the new administration's worldview and those of its predecessors: The recurring themes include "partnership" and "engagement" and "common interests." Clearly, Madeleine Albright's "indispensable nation" has recognized the indispensability of collaborating with others.

Also,

by most accounts, the administration's national security team has come together successfully, with Clinton developing strong relationships with national security adviser Jones and Defense Secretary Gates. Her policy deputy, Jim Steinberg, has renewed an old collaboration with deputy national security adviser Tom Donilon; the two of them, working with Obama campaign foreign policy advisers Denis McDonough and Mark Lippert, have formed what one State Department seventh-floor dweller called "a powerful quartet at the heart of real interagency policymaking." ...
At the heart of things, though, is the relationship between Clinton and Obama. For all the administration's talk of international partnerships, that may be the most critical partnership of all.

So far, according to multiple high-level officials at State and the White House, the two seem aligned in their views. In addition, they are gradually defining complementary roles. Obama has assumed the role of principal spokesperson on foreign policy, as international audiences welcome his new and improved American brand. Clinton thus far has echoed his points but has also delivered tougher ones. Whether on a missile shield against Iran or North Korean saber-rattling, the continued imprisonment of Aung San Suu Kyi in Burma or rape and corruption in Congo, the secretary of state has spoken bluntly on the world stage

What a refreshing change from the last eight years of "I'll-kick-your-ass" belligerance!

"Take advantage of me and I will crush you"

2009-08-23T20:02:00.000-07:00

Paraphrased: "You come straight at me and I'll come straight at you, but if you take advantage of me, I will crush you." Let's see some of this attitude against the Republicans in the health-care debate.

Paul Krugman on Obama’s Trust Problem

2009-08-23T18:46:00.000-07:00

Paul Krugman a couple days ago wrote:

"it’s possible to have universal coverage without a public option — several European nations do it — and some who want a public option might be willing to forgo it if they had confidence in the overall health care strategy. Unfortunately, the president’s behavior in office has undermined that confidence.

On the issue of health care itself, the inspiring figure progressives thought they had elected comes across, far too often, as a dry technocrat who talks of “bending the curve” but has only recently begun to make the moral case for reform. Mr. Obama’s explanations of his plan have gotten clearer, but he still seems unable to settle on a simple, pithy formula; his speeches and op-eds still read as if they were written by a committee."

What we need most of all is for the President to cast this debate within the frame of the moral case for reform. It should have been so from the beginning.

The PolicySpeak Disaster

2009-08-21T10:44:00.000-07:00

I have long admired George Lakoff's ability and teaching on framing and messaging. In a post at Huffpo and DailyKos, George Lakoff discusses the Obama Administration's "PolicySpeak Disaster."

PolicySpeak is the principle that: If you just tell people the policy facts, they will reason to the right conclusion and support the policy wholeheartedly.

PolicySpeak is the principle behind the President’s new Reality Check Website. To my knowledge, the Reality Check Website, has not had a reality check. ...
To many liberals, PolicySpeak sounds like the high road: a rational, public discussion in the best tradition of liberal democracy. Convince the populace rationally on the objective policy merits. Give the facts and figures. Assume self-interest as the motivator of rational choice. Convince people by the logic of the policymakers that the policy is in their interest.

But to a cognitive scientist or neuroscientist, this sounds nuts. The view of human reason and language behind PolicySpeak is just false. Certainly reason should be used. It’s just that you should use real reason, the way people really think. Certainly the truth should be told. It’s just that it should be told so it makes sense to people, resonates with them, and inspires them to act.

In this health-care debate, the President's advisors have fallen into the classic policyspeak framing disaster to which we on the left are so often prone. The White House would do well to get a cognitive scientist like George Lakoff on board, and fast.

It's About Corporate Money

2009-07-14T10:28:00.000-07:00

According to one poll after another, a majority of Americans not only want a public option in healthcare, they also think
• that growing inequality is bad for the country,
• that corporations have too much power over policy,
• that money in politics is the root of all evil, and
• that working families and poor communities need and deserve public support when the market fails to generate shared prosperity.

But when insiders in Washington finish tearing worthy intentions apart, devouring flesh from bone, none of these reforms happen. Oh, they say it’s all about compromise, all in the nature of the give-and-take of representative democracy. That, people, is bull, the basic nutrient of Washington’s high and mighty.

It’s not about compromise. It’s not about what the public wants. It’s about money, the golden ticket to the “select few who actually get it done.” And nothing will change – nothing – until the money lenders are thrown out of the temple and we tear down the sign that they placed on government – the one that says, “For Sale.”

– Bill Moyers, Bill Moyers Journal, July 10, 2009

Barack Obama: Superhero

2009-06-20T03:20:00.001-07:00

Try JibJab Sendables® eCards today!

Health Care Reform Countdown - The Wait is Killing Us!

2009-06-19T14:38:00.000-07:00

God, please HELP us!

150 days, 14 hours, 0 minutes, and 58 seconds
have passed since the Democrats were entrusted with
total control over the government and promised us health care reform!

Deaths of people without Healthcare access 8,246

Total Deaths Today: 32

Since 9/11/2001, 175,451 have died due to lack of health care. That's the same as 62 nine-elevens.

http://www.potholes-business.com/dc1.htm

Obama's Speech to the AMA on June 15, 2009

2009-06-15T13:32:00.000-07:00

Pittsburgh Penguins win Stanley Cup!

2009-06-15T13:24:00.000-07:00

President Obama's Cairo Speech on June 3, 2009

2009-06-08T00:37:00.000-07:00

Why the next Justice should be a Woman

2009-05-23T09:57:00.000-07:00

Ruth Marcus explains why it's important that the next Supreme Court justice be a woman:

As important, though, is the inescapable fact that a female justice -- like a justice who's a member of a racial minority, or who's served in elective office, or who's been in private practice -- brings a useful set of life experiences to the art of judging. Because it is an art; it involves the exercise of judgment, not scientific measurement.

Those from the umpire school -- funny how that's a male metaphor -- would prefer not to think so. In an interview with CNBC shortly after O'Connor's retirement, Justice Antonin Scalia said that "as far as the product of the court is concerned, it makes no difference at all. I don't think there's . . . a female legal answer to a question and a male legal answer to the same question. That's just silly."

Sure it is, phrased that way. But life experiences inform the act of judging, and the experience of being a female justice comes into play at certain moments.

Ginsburg, in an interview with USA Today, cited two from this term: one involving school officials who strip-searched a 13-year-old-girl, and another on pregnancy discrimination. In the strip-search case, some justices questioned the notion that the girl was traumatized by the event; Ginsburg suggested that they just didn't get it. "They have never been a 13-year-old girl," she told USA Today. "It's a very sensitive age for a girl. I didn't think that my colleagues, some of them, quite understood."

My Inauguration Week Experiences in DC

2009-01-25T14:17:00.000-08:00

My 15-year-old daughter and I had a wonderful time during our stay in DC from Saturday to Wednesday. We stayed at the home of a very nice elderly couple who offered a room for rent through their church, saw a college friend who came over from Baltimore with his family, went to the National Zoo, attended a "bash" at the Air & Space Museum sponsored by the California Democratic Party, saw the Holocaust, Natural History and International Spy Museums and National Archives.

On Inauguration Day, the whole atmosphere was one of euphoria all day long, with everyone realizing they were there to witness history and being all nice to each other. There were loud cheers by the crowd at many moments during the swearing-in ceremony. It was the only day of its kind in history, but I hope that we can have more days that approach this kind of euphoria in the months and years ahead with the Obama administration.

We had "silver" tickets, which entitled us to stand in the silver section on the west side of the Capitol Reflecting Pool. There were many thousands of ticket holders who never made it past the excruciatingly SLOW security gates because of the complete LACK of crowd control, signage, bullhorns, information, authorities and staff people and not enough metal detectors. This affected the purple, blue and silver gates. I pity the poor purple ticket holders who were stuck like sardines in a tunnel for hours with NO assistance whatsoever.

By going to an alternate security gate on the parade route (no tickets required), we waited in a crowd for only a bit less than two hours and finally made it in at about 11:00 a.m. There were only four metal detectors for the thousands seeking entrance there. We never made it into the silver ticketed section, a mere 30 yards away, because of police and barricades. We were across from the Canadian Embassy at 4th and Pennsylvania, where our view of the Capitol was blocked by the East Wing of the National Gallery of Art. There were speakers across the street that were providing the NPR live commentary about the proceedings.

But using binoculars and a view that was partially blocked by tree branches, we watched a Jumbotron that was next to the Capitol lawn, then waited over 3 hours to see the parade and Obama's motorcade. The "crowd" was only one person deep on our side of the street, with three police officers lining Pennsylvania Ave. for every spectator in the area we were standing.

Then as the presidential limo approached, my video camera ran out of space to record (argh!). But then Michelle and Sasha waved at us, which was memorable. I could see Barack waving on the other side of the car. A block after they passed us, Michelle and Barack got out of the car to walk.

It was so cold, before and after this, that we left and did not stay for the rest of the parade. It was obvious that it would not finish until after dark. But as it turned out, because of all the police barricades, we had to walk up Constitution Avenue toward the Washington Monument to get out of the secured area, and the entire parade was lined up on that street waiting for the start. A few marching bands were practicing.

My daughter and I bought some souvenirs from the vendors and then got on the still-packed Metro train for the ride back to the National Zoo stop, where we had stayed nearby.

It was for us an experience of a lifetime that we will always hold close.

YES, WE DID!

Great Obama Photo Gallery Covering the Last Several Years

2009-01-06T21:36:00.000-08:00

Check out this photo gallery by Barack Obama's photographer, Pete Souza. He is now the new official White House photographer, and he was also Ronald Reagan's photographer.

President-Elect Barack Obama's Weekly Address, 11/22/08

2008-11-27T17:56:00.000-08:00

Help!

2008-11-16T18:04:00.000-08:00

From xkcd:

"Barack ran so our children can fly"

2008-11-15T14:49:00.000-08:00

From David Byrne's blog, quoting an unnamed author:

Rosa sat so Martin could walk. Martin walked so Barack could run. Barack ran so our children can fly.

President-Elect Barack Obama's Weekly Address, 11/15/08

2008-11-15T13:31:00.000-08:00

Get Your Goosebumps Here!

2008-11-12T11:02:00.001-08:00

Click on an image to expand.

Heimlich Maneuver

2008-11-12T09:39:00.000-08:00

This pretty much sums up the election for me.

Great Photos of the Obamas on Election Night!

2008-11-11T16:30:00.000-08:00

The photos in this slideshow were taken by one of Obama's personal photographers on election night. There are some absolutely amazing photos, so I thought I'd share.

Huge Reno Canvas for Barack

2008-10-26T19:22:00.001-07:00

This was at the staging area in Reno. This is the line to sign-in prior to orientation. Minutes later it was twice as long.

Update (11/10/08): I found out later that there were over 1200 Northern California volunteers in Reno that day and over 1700 in Northern Nevada. The campaign workers who gave us our instructions told us not to blog about it until after the election, so as to remain under the opposition's radar as much as possible.

Chuckle-worthy Convention Swag

2008-10-26T19:18:00.001-07:00

This Antonio Villaraigosa bobble-head was one of the unusual swag items in the goody-bag that the California Democratic Party provided to California delegates at the Democratic National Convention.

McCain's Contemptuousness: "A feature, not a bug"

2008-09-27T16:00:00.000-07:00

John Cole captures the fallout for McCain from last night's first presidential debate:

That is just a sample of what is going to come. Look for the appearance of the following words in days to come: cranky, grumpy, crotchety, angry, mean, rude, sneering, snarling, contemptuous, off-putting, snide, boorish, and worst of all, not Presidential. ... And if McCain does not tone down the contempt, it will simply feed the narrative. Or, if we are really lucky, as someone suggested in another thread, McCain will overcompensate and spend the entire time comically and creepily attempting to make eye contact with Obama. ...

This should be terrifying for the McCain campaign for two reasons. First, the base will not understand it. To them, a sneering, contemptuous jerk is a feature, not a bug. When they try to tone down McCain, it will turn off the diehards. Look at the reaction of the base to Palin’s RNC speech- they LOVED that she was, for all intents and purposes, nothing but an asshole the entire speech. They loved the "zingers" that were written for her. The rest of the country recoiled in horror, and Obama raised ten million the next 48 hours.

Second, they have spent the last few months angrily lashing out at the media, and these were the folks who used to love McCain.

We want elite pilots to fly our planes, don't we?

2008-09-27T14:23:00.000-07:00

In the current issue of Newsweek, Sam Harris "rips Sarah Palin—and defends elitism."

The problem, as far as our political process is concerned, is that half the electorate revels in Palin's lack of intellectual qualifications. When it comes to politics, there is a mad love of mediocrity in this country. "They think they're better than you!" is the refrain that (highly competent and cynical) Republican strategists have set loose among the crowd, and the crowd has grown drunk on it once again. "Sarah Palin is an ordinary person!" Yes, all too ordinary.

and

I care even more about the many things Palin thinks she knows but doesn't: like her conviction that the Biblical God consciously directs world events. Needless to say, she shares this belief with millions of Americans—but we shouldn't be eager to give these people our nuclear codes, either. There is no question that if President McCain chokes on a spare rib and Palin becomes the first woman president, she and her supporters will believe that God, in all his majesty and wisdom, has brought it to pass. Why would God give Sarah Palin a job she isn't ready for? He wouldn't. Everything happens for a reason. Palin seems perfectly willing to stake the welfare of our country—even the welfare of our species—as collateral in her own personal journey of faith.

and

What is so unnerving about the candidacy of Sarah Palin is the degree to which she represents—and her supporters celebrate—the joyful marriage of confidence and ignorance. Watching her deny to Gibson that she had ever harbored the slightest doubt about her readiness to take command of the world's only superpower, one got the feeling that Palin would gladly assume any responsibility on earth:

"Governor Palin, are you ready at this moment to perform surgery on this child's brain?"

"Of course, Charlie. I have several boys of my own, and I'm an avid hunter."

"But governor, this is neurosurgery, and you have no training as a surgeon of any kind."

"That's just the point, Charlie. The American people want change in how we make medical decisions in this country. And when faced with a challenge, you cannot blink."

and

There is simply no other walk of life in which extraordinary talent and rigorous training are denigrated. We want elite pilots to fly our planes, elite troops to undertake our most critical missions, elite athletes to represent us in competition and elite scientists to devote the most productive years of their lives to curing our diseases. And yet, when it comes time to vest people with even greater responsibilities, we consider it a virtue to shun any and all standards of excellence. When it comes to choosing the people whose thoughts and actions will decide the fates of millions, then we suddenly want someone just like us, someone fit to have a beer with, someone down-to-earth—in fact, almost anyone, provided that he or she doesn't seem too intelligent or well educated.

Although I am not an atheist (a Methodist, in fact -- I had to chuckle at the reference to Methodists in the article), I share these same concerns. It's worth a read.

My Convention Photos!

2008-09-10T00:11:00.001-07:00

Cross-posted at Daily Kos and SFKossacks.

In the lobby of the Denver Sheraton Hotel downtown. Both the New York and California delegations took over the Sheraton (formerly the Adam’s Mark).

The oldest church in Denver, First United Methodist Church, is downtown. They had sent me an invitation to the Sunday service, but I would not arrive in Denver until later in the day.

The Sheraton Hotel is at the southern end of the 16th Street Mall, about a 10-block long street that is closed to private vehicles.

Riot police stationed around an event at the "Rock the Vote" van. Three musicians on top of the van were setting up to play, and a small crowd was waiting on the sidewalk.

The police rode horses on the 16th Street Mall too.

PETA outside the Colorado Convention Center. Lipstick anyone? This is where many of the passive "sideshow" protesters hung out every day, although the four anti-abortion people had a bullhorn. There were cops and street vendors too.

This 20-foot-tall bear looks into the Colorado Convention Center, where most of the official Democratic Party caucus meetings and other events occurred. Delegates with floor passes did not have to go through security.

Former Texas Ag Commissioner Jim Hightower and I at the Colorado Convention Center. Hightower had just spoken to the Rural Caucus.

California Secretary of State Debra Bowen and I in a guest room hallway in the Sheraton. Just another one of those chance encounters with our Democratic leaders.

The delegate security checkpoint. They did a good job of getting us through quickly at the Pepsi Center. Invesco Field was a different story.

Fellow California CD11 and CD10 delegates, Lea Austin of Tracy and Ken Richards of Walnut Creek, and I at the Pepsi Center.

View looking down the escalator upon entering the Pepsi Center on Day 1.

We found the sign. Hail, California!

California Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres and yours truly in the Pepsi Center.

The CNN team, right in front of the California delegation seating. Love that Donna Brazile.

That’s me at the foot of the Pepsi Center stage. With my pass, I could walk anywhere on the floor.

Virginia Governor Tim Kaine being interviewed on the floor.

The Alaska delegation (at least they were on the floor part of the "floor"). Except for Illinois, just about all of the delegations on the actual floor were from battleground states.

A tribute film to Jimmy Carter prior to his appearance.

Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter appear on stage, but do not address the crowd.

Barack Obama’s sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, addresses the convention.

Ted Kennedy summons his strength to speak to the convention. We were expecting a video greeting and were overwhelmed when he showed up in person.

Ted Kennedy’s convention farewell. But he said, "And I pledge to you, I pledge to you that I will be there next January on the floor of the United States Senate when we begin the great test."

Fellow East Bay delegates Mark Friedman, Fred Feller and Ayelet Waldman, all Obama delegates from Berkeley.

Michelle’s speech to the convention on Monday night was perfect.

Barack speaking to Michelle and kids via satellite from ~~St. Louis~~ Kansas City after Michelle’s speech.

Rep. Donna Edwards, Dr. Julianne Malveaux and me after the “Turn Around America” panel discussion in which they participated on Tuesday.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar was on the same panel.

Dennis Kucinich (the invited speaker) and his wife, Elizabeth, enter an interest group event at the Sheraton.

“Hope” – Outside the Pepsi Center.

CNN Grill across the street from the Pepsi Center. I never got to go there.

Michael Wilson, of Florida, a Republican and Air Force medic veteran of Iraq, placed Sen. Obama’s name in nomination to be our presidential candidate.

Climbing the arena’s lower bowl steps to my seat in the delegation near the California sign.

Arkansas, home of the former first lady of Arkansas, "has 47 votes. For Barack Obama…" (It now appears that she got cut off by the huge crowd cheer before she said 37 votes for Obama).

Sen. Boxer introduces Art Torres at the roll call to announce California’s vote.

Art Torres passes when it’s California’s turn at the roll call, shocking many in the delegation.

David Gregory of MSNBC stops by to find out why California passed.

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine announces all 127 of New Jersey’s votes go to Barack Obama, even though Clinton won the state. The place goes wild.

Sen. Hillary Clinton makes a motion to suspend the roll call and nominate Barack Obama by acclamation. It seemed that everyone in the arena, when asked by Nancy Pelosi, "Do I hear a second?," yelled “Second!” Then to "All those in favor?," shouted “Aye,” followed by the fastest gavel in the West.

Lea Austin and I in the Pepsi Center, being amazed at just being there to represent the voters of our Congressional District.

Gloria Allred, who earlier had staged a demonstration of being "gagged" by the state Democratic Party, and Sen. Barbara Boxer discuss why California passed during the roll call.

Governor Gray Davis and Sharon Davis sat next to me.

Kamala Harris, San Francisco District Attorney, sat two rows in front of me.

Melissa Etheridge kicks ass for the Constitution, prior to Bill Clinton being introduced.

President Clinton addresses an admiring audience.

Bill Clinton leaves the stage to thunderous applause.

Nancy Pelosi stops by our row at the Pepsi Center.

John Kerry stirs up the Pepsi Center crowd. Where was this John Kerry four years ago?

Nancy Pelosi puts the motion to nominate Joe Biden to the floor for a vote.

Joe Biden accepts the vice-presidential nomination.

Joe Biden’s mom was watching from the second level suites.

New York Congressman Charlie Rangel and I at the Sheraton. This was our second encounter, and this time I had my camera ready.

The delegate line winds around a parking lot while we wait in the heat to go through security at Invesco Field.

One of the young volunteers who directed delegates to the field entrance. I was floating on air having just gotten through security.

This way to the field where the delegates are; it’s like the Mother of all Super Bowls!

Yeah, it’s me. I’m holding my hometown paper, the "Pleasanton Weekly." They print photos of Pleasanton residents holding the paper at their travel destinations.

Ken Richard, Lea Austin and Tracy Krumpen (from Napa) in the late afternoon Invesco sun.

Sheryl Crow rocked the house with four great songs. It was amusing that the organizers put the lyrics on the teleprompter.

Another Bay Area delegate, April Vargas of San Mateo County.

Congressman George Miller at Invesco Field. Earlier at the Pepsi Center, when I crossed in front of him to get to my seat in the same row, I recognized him and said hello, and then he said, "Hi. George Miller of District 10." What an unassuming guy!

Congresswoman Barbara Lee at Invesco Field.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson fires up the crowd.

Stevie Wonder sings "Signed, Sealed, Delivered" as the delegates danced and swayed along.

Al Gore takes the stage at Invesco Field to a monumental welcome.

View of the stadium from the field during Al Gore’s speech. It was nearing capacity attendance at this point.

Former San Francisco mayor and California Assembly speaker Willie Brown and I at Invesco Field. Earlier he had spoken at the California delegation breakfast.

Twenty U.S. generals and admirals stand up for Barack Obama. This was a proud moment for our nation.

Vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden addresses the throng at Invesco Field.

Crowd at Invesco Field at dusk.

Barack Obama is introduced at Invesco Field. You probably remember the moment.

The crowd could not be quieted – for good reason!

Barack Obama delivered a magnificent speech on improving the lives of the average American and offered real solutions.

Barack on stage with Michelle, Sasha and Malia just after completing his speech.

The Bidens join the Obamas on stage.

Streamers and fireworks erupt at Invesco Field.

Confetti rains down at Invesco after Obama’s acceptance speech.

Fireworks light up the sky at Invesco.

Barack Obama – a winner in any language.

Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. leaving Invesco Field.

Goodnight, Chet. Goodnight, David. And good night for NBC News.

Farewell from the Denver Airport. It’s been great!

View from my seat inside the Pepsi Center

2008-09-09T06:41:00.001-07:00

Check out Lea's Blog

2008-09-08T21:34:00.000-07:00

Lea Austin and I ran on a slate together on April 13 to be elected as the two Obama delegates from Congressional District 11. Lea and I were activists together in the local Obama campaign in the Tri-Valley and Central Valley. Lea is a terrific lady! She and I spent most of our time inside the convention together, along with a group of about five other East Bay delegates. Here she and I are at the Colorado Convention Center on Sunday night.

I invite you to check out her blog from inside the convention at http://www.leaslagniappe.blogspot.com/

Rock the Vote party on Monday night

2008-09-08T20:27:00.001-07:00

“Scoring the Party Conventions”

2008-09-07T11:59:00.000-07:00

Lisa Vorderbruegen, the political reporter for the Contra Costa Times, has a humor piece in the paper today on "Scoring the party conventions."

She says the Dems had the most mind-numbing speeches. One person counted 103 speeches all together. My prize for the most boring, most obvious teleprompter-reading, monotone speech goes to John Sweeney, president of the AFL-CIO. His five minutes proved that he wasn’t even trying to search for the lost art of public speaking. And, you know, if you ask a Democrat to say a few brief words, you can forget about brief because you get far more than just a few words.

Lisa points out that the Dem convention had the most junk food on the Pepsi Center menu. I agree. There were almost zero healthy items on the concession stand menus there. However, they did have a veggie wrap at one of the stands, so that’s what I got. Of course I wasn’t allowed to take it back to my seat (unlike some party bigwigs with popcorn and a hot dog).

I can’t comment on the Denver restaurants, because I subsisted on the complimentary delegate breakfasts, Pepsi Center "food" for lunch, and the food at parties for dinner in the evenings. The only restaurant that I went to was Leely’s 24-Hour European Diner at 1:30 am Friday morning to get some "dinner" after Invesco Field.

Lisa gives Republicans the advantage in "tasteless jokes in the earshot of press." For example,

If Biden tries any of that bully stuff with Sarah Palin, he will remind women of their ex-husbands.

This was spoken to the GOP delegates by California Republican chairman Ron Nehring. I just would not have guessed.

I agree with Lisa on the obnoxious behavior by Gloria Allred, as I discussed in yesterday’s post. However, I was sitting in the ballroom at breakfast when this incident occurred, and I don’t remember Dem leaders cranking up the hotel ballroom stereo. As far as "issuing stern orders for everyone (in Allred’s group) to leave," if it’s stern for Art Torres to say it’s a joy to see our associate Gloria Allred and that he’d appreciate them taking their meeting out to the hallway, then I guess so.

Swag: I guess the goodie bags for the press did not have all the goodies that the delegates’ bags had. (See that link for a photo of the delegates' goodies.) For example, the delegates had goodie bags from the both the DNC and California Democratic party. The California bag was a canvas bag with a zippered closure, so I used that bag all week to carry stuff with me. We got mini-binoculars and two pedometers. My favorite chuckle-worthy item was our Antonio Villaraigosa bobble-head doll. My eight-year-old loves it!

I agree with Lisa about this memorable line by Ted Kennedy:

And I pledge to you, I pledge to you that I will be there next January on the floor of the United States Senate when we begin the great test.

That brought a roar from the crowd and was a spine-tingling moment.

Lisa mentions the bicycle cabs going up and down the 16th Street Mall. They sure were doing a booming business. I’m not surprised they made so much money.

Lisa also mentions Donna Brazile. My favorite Donna Brazile moment was at the Pepsi Center (the CNN stage was right in front of the California delegation). When the nomination of Barack Obama was done by acclamation and the music began, there was Donna Brazile at the edge of the CNN platform, out of camera range, wearing an Obama t-shirt, bouncing along with the music and the crowd, leading the section off to my right in cheers of "O-ba-ma, O-ba-ma."

My only regret was that I did not get to meet Lisa at the convention, even after filling out an extensive questionnaire that she had sent to me beforehand. However, I do think our paths will cross at some point. Right, Lisa?

Art Torres to CA Delegates: Surprise! We’re not announcing your votes!

2008-09-06T20:21:00.000-07:00

California Roll Call: Obama 273, Clinton 166

Here are the official results of the state tally sheets that were collected during voting during the Roll Call of States on Wednesday afternoon of the convention:

Barack Obama: 3188.5
Hillary Clinton: 1010.5

If you were watching the Roll Call of States, you saw that the Roll Call was never concluded and that California passed. The vast majority of the California delegates had no idea that Art Torres would pass (including me). When he did so, there was a lot of shock and surprise among us. All of the delegates who were there had voted (or had the chance to vote) at breakfast that morning.

Many of California’s Clinton delegates were very upset that California had passed. This act of passing stirred up a lot of anger among them in our delegation. (Remember that Clinton won the California primary.) Many believed that California had passed because such a large number of Clinton votes announced during the roll call would have been an embarrassment to Obama.

There was a significant number of Clinton delegates, apparently led by Gloria Allred, who were holding out for Clinton to the very end. Many sat together each day in several rows of the delegation seating in the Pepsi Center, holding signs in support of Clinton, and they had circulated a petition among delegates to allow Clinton’s name to be placed in nomination and for her roll call votes to be recorded.

Gloria Allred did her best to stir up controversy on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, regarding what she felt was the “gagging” of the Clinton delegates. At the end of the delegation breakfast on Tuesday, she held a meeting to discuss why she was being gagged. One of her associates rudely interrupted Art Torres from the back of the room, while Art was speaking to the delegates during breakfast, to announce this meeting. Allred also attracted several TV reporters to interview her near our seats in the Pepsi Center. Right after one interview, she took off like a shot down onto the floor next to the stage, apparently to jump in front of another TV camera.

After the nomination of Barack Obama had been approved by voice vote on Wednesday, Barbara Boxer showed up near our seats and took a bit of heat from some of the upset delegates. She then moved around the California delegation and repeatedly told small groups of delegates why California had passed. It seemed to me that she was in an urgent quest to head off a potentially embarrassing dispute within the delegation, such as might occur (in my view) if delegates were to start running to reporters.

Boxer said that the “pass” was because the votes of most of the California Assembly and Senate members who were in Sacramento for the budget crisis had not been submitted yet. She also told everyone that the final count for California was Obama 273 and Clinton 166 (so by inference there were 2 not voting).

How did we cast our votes? The first task of almost every delegate each morning, prior to sitting down for breakfast in the adjacent ballroom, was to pick up his or her floor credential by showing ID and signing for it. On Wednesday morning, while picking up our credentials, we also voted for our candidates. The person issuing my credential to me had papers with delegates’ names listed alphabetically in a column down the left side and three columns of boxes (for Obama, Clinton and Other) on the rest of each sheet. I voted by printing an “X” in the Obama box next to my name and signing in a signature space.

Video from just before the MPR Show

2008-09-02T08:18:00.000-07:00

Here is a web page created by Michigan delegate Derrick Jackson, who was at the MPR recording. He has posted several 2-minute videos of some of the people there answering his questions (including me).

"What it Means to be a Democrat"

2008-09-02T06:17:00.000-07:00

Here is the Minnesota Public Radio broadcast in which I participated. I was part of a roundtable discussion among about 20 delegates and volunteers to the Democratic National Convention on "What it Means to be a Democrat." I think I'm on here answering four questions. It's a really good discussion that is NOT focused on electoral races or the convention. Wait until you hear the quotes of what Republicans think of Democrats! It was recorded on August 27 and aired on August 28.
Here's a link to the broadcast without an intro.
Link to broadcast and see a photo of some panelists.

Here's an MP3 file (50 MB) of this recording, if you'd like to download it.

Day 4: The Experience of a Lifetime – Part II

2008-09-01T11:02:00.000-07:00

Thursday, August 28

Walking down the ramp into the stadium, I was so full of anticipation and excitement. It was like entering the Mother of all Super Bowls. As I walked onto the field I was struck by the enormity of the stadium and of the occasion. The field area of the stadium contained all of the state delegations.

As I was trying to find our seating area, Lea called me on my cell and guided me there. She and Ken had gotten there earlier and were able to walk up onto the stage and take photos before the place started to fill up. The California delegation was seated off to the left of the podium (for the speaker), in between the Iowa and Colorado signs. The California sign was located way at the rear of our delegation’s seating area, unlike in the Pepsi Center. I guessed that we were in about the 14th row of seats. Because of the large size of the stage area, that put us about 40 yards from the podium.

My wife, Joan, got into the stadium before I did, even though she had walked all the way from the Sheraton, had arrived about 1:00 and had waited in line about 2 ½ hours to go through security. She called me as I was about to get off the delegate bus at the stadium.

There were many highlights to the day at Invesco: Al Gore’s speech, the moving musical entertainment, the line-up of about 20 generals and admirals who supported Barack, Barney Smith, and Barack Obama’s acceptance speech.

will.i.am and John Legend very beautifully sang “Yes We Can.”

Sheryl Crow sang four great songs. It amused me that the lyrics to her songs were on the teleprompter. I’m sure that Sheryl did not even look at them. The DNC was apparently just trying to be on the safe side to have a flawless presentation.

Stevie Wonder sang “Signed, Sealed, Delivered.” During all of the songs, the delegates sang and danced along, and I and those around me several times joined arms and swayed to the music.

Al Gore spoke very convincingly about global warming and delivered some well-deserved attacks on the Bush-McCain polices. I had also seen and heard Al Gore in Austin at Netroots Nation in July.

After Al Gore spoke, five ordinary people (including some former Republicans), all from battleground states, who had suffered because of the Bush-McCain policies, let us in on their bad experiences. There was a small businessman from Indiana named Barney Smith, who was a former Republican. He concluded his short talk by saying he wanted a leader who would look out for Barney Smith instead of Smith Barney. The crowd roared and started chanting, “Barney, Barney…”

Barack Obama’s speech was filled with both soaring rhetoric as well as policy details. Obama covered all the bases and did everything he had to do and more. He seemed to hardly ever look at the teleprompter, and even when he did, he always had a conversational tone. He presented his biography to introduce himself to the American people. He put meat on the bones of his policy proposals. He made it clear that the Democratic Party is the party of the working class by focusing on many “lunch pail” issues.

I was pleased that Obama got very tough on McCain, going after him “hammer and tongs.” He questioned McCain’s judgment to be president, as well we all should. Obama said, “It’s not that he doesn’t care; it’s that he doesn't get it. … He doesn’t understand.”

This great line got a huge roar of approval also: “McCain voted with George Bush 90% of the time. Why would we take only a 10% chance that things will change?

I thought it was a defining part of the speech when Obama said that patriots are not Democratic or Republican. We fight next to each, bleed next to each other, and if necessary, die next to each other. We all fight under the same flag.

Barack Obama looked like, spoke like, and acted like a president of the United States. What a refreshing change after our eight-year national nightmare.

The end of the speech and the celebration with the fireworks and confetti turned out to be a very emotional moment. I shed some tears at one point when Kathy burst into tears. All of a sudden it just hit me that after 18 months of campaigning for this man and putting my heart and soul into his nomination, we had finally accomplished it – we had indeed changed this country and would now take our country back.

Then KGO-TV reporter Mark Matthews walked up the aisle right next to our group consisting of Kathy, Ken, Lea, Fred and me. He asked if any of us were Bay Area delegates, and we told him that we all were. He stuck the microphone in my face, and I blurted out about the 18 months of campaigning and, “It was so much! It was beyond my wildest dreams!” That quote made the 11:00 news in San Francisco.

As we were about to leave the field to exit the stadium, Ken and I were interviewed by a reporter and cameraperson (both happened to be women) from Tokyo TV. We each answered two questions.

I have so many details that keep coming to mind. I’ll post them in several shorter posts to come. I also took about 700 photos over the course of the convention. I’ll be posting some of those too.

MANY THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

2008-08-30T00:07:00.000-07:00

I would not have been able to attend this historic convention and represent the Eleventh Congressional District of California without the support of the Democratic voters of our district, who chose to make a special trip on a sunny Sunday afternoon in April to vote for me, as well as the support of other fellow activists on the Obama campaign in the Bay Area.

To all of you I express my deep, heartfelt thanks for giving me the opportunity to represent you at this wonderful convention. There will never be another with its historic significance, and I will never forget you for sending me there for the experience of a lifetime.

Day 4: The Experience of a Lifetime – Part I

2008-08-29T23:56:00.000-07:00

Thursday, August 28

When I picked up my daily delegate credential this morning before breakfast, I received the good news that the California Democratic Party had secured passes to Invesco Field for almost all the guests for whom delegates had requested tickets. This made a lot of people very happy, including my wife Joan.

The last California delegation breakfast featured mayors – John Hickenlooper of Denver, former San Francisco mayor Willie Brown, current San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom, and Antonio Villarraigosa of Los Angeles. (By the way, in our goodie bags on Sunday, all the delegates had received a bobble-head doll of Mayor Villarraigosa.)

Willie Brown was Willie Brown, opinionated and passionate as ever, especially about the need to do everything we can to elect Barack Obama. Gavin Newsom gave a good talk about all that he has accomplished in San Francisco in spite of budget cuts, and saying several times, “If we can do it in San Francisco, we can do it in California.” He sure sounded like a candidate for governor.

I could not stay for the talk by Mayor Villarraigosa, as I had to get over to the Convention Center by 10:00 for the Alliance Labor Caucus. This caucus is a partnership by four unions (IFPTE, CWA, steelworkers and autoworkers) formed to advocate aggressively for Democrats in future elections. Levin Sy and Mark Mitchell of our Local 20 of Engineers and Scientists of California, IFPTE, had asked me to attend. Our president, Greg Junemann, they said, would introduce me to the assembled. What I did not know was the content of the program that was planned from 10:00 to 12:30. And was I ever surprised!

The following elected leaders, who are friends of Labor, appeared in this order and spoke for about 6 or 7 minutes each:
Gov. Joe Manchin (WV)
Sen. Carl Levin (MI)
Sen. Dick Durbin (IL)
Rep. Betty Sutton (OH)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT)
Rep. Danny Davis (IL)
Rep. Nick Lampson (TX)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH)
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (MI)

I was like a kid in a candy store, because I love to hear what our Democratic leaders think and have to say. Each one spoke with passion that showed they get it. They get what’s going on in our country economically, as Sen. Stabenow pointed out. All were very much in favor of the Employee Free Choice Act, which was a prime topic of discussion. We must have an Obama administration in January to get this signed into law.

I was impressed by all of them, but especially with Danny Davis, whom I had neither seen nor heard before. Not only does he have a passion for the well-being of his constituents, but also he is a very learned man. He began and ended his talk by quoting several lines of classic literature. He also delivered a great line when, speaking about why any brother or sister in Labor would not vote for Obama, he said, “I have never heard of a turkey voting for an early Thanksgiving.”

President Junemann then introduced me and had me stand up. He mentioned that I had become a member of IFPTE within the last year and specifically that I had become a member through a neutral card check procedure, something the EFCA would guarantee for all workers.

The program at Invesco Field was scheduled to begin at 4:30, with DNC shuttles starting to run at 2:00. I walked back to the hotel to change my shirt (a daily necessity with high humidity, i.e., relative to California), post my “Day 3” diary to this blog, and catch the shuttle. Only credentialed delegates and those with “Special Guest” credentials were allowed to ride the shuttles, so all the guests and the public that had gotten “Community Passes” had to find their way to Invesco on their own.

My wife left the Sheraton at 12:30 and ended up walking all the way to Union Station in LoDo and on over to Invesco. That is a decent hike, and there were thousands of people doing it. Because of the strict security measures, she waited in line for 2 ½ hours, as did almost all of the public. The weather was sunny and hot, and I saw a couple of people being carted off for medical attention and receiving oxygen.

This was the first day that I could not simply get on the first bus at the designated stop, but instead had to wait in line. The shuttle bus got us to Invesco in decent time, and I had a nice conversation with a young man from Washington, DC named Jesse on the bus. But after we got there, we had to wait in the delegate security check line in the heat for an hour until we got through. Lea and Ken were already in the stadium, having gotten an earlier start. Lea called me to direct me to where they were sitting.

But then we got in, and was that ever an adrenaline rush! Later in Part II, I’ll describe the evening from my vantage point 40 yards away from the podium.

Day 3: Even better than Day 2! We did what we came to do!

2008-08-28T13:04:00.000-07:00

Here is quick overview of Day 3. I'll post in detail later. Right after I post this, I am catching the shuttle bus to Invesco Field to attend tonight's acceptance speech.
1. Cast my vote for Barack Obama before breakfast.
2. I participated in recording a radio show as part of a roundtable on “What it means to be a Democrat.” This was a show produced by Minnesota Public Radio.
3. Attended a talk by Dennis Kucinich in my hotel sponsored by the American Muslim Task Force.
4. Shuttle to Pepsi Center
5. Listen to nomination speeches for Hillary and Barack.
6. The Roll Call Vote! – This was the highlight of the day for me until the very end of the program. There were some rumblings among the California delegation when Art Torres passed.
7. Hillary’s call for nomination by acclamation.
8. The nomination of Barack Obama as the Democratic Party’s candidate for President of the United States!
9. Bill Clinton’s welcoming by the delegates and speech
10. John Kerry’s speech
11. Steven Spielberg short film about America’s war veterans, narrated by Tom Hanks (extremely moving)
12. Tammy Duckworth
13. Beau Biden
14. The nomination of Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s candidate for Vice-President of the United States!
15. Joe Biden’s acceptance speech
16. Surprise guest Barack Obama
17. California Delegation Gala at the Colorado Museum of Natural Science

Also, Melissa Etheridge fired us up with a couple great songs at the Pepsi Center.

Whew! What a day!

Day 4 is sure to top it. The excitement and anticipation is in the air all around. Everyone is clamoring for any available ticket. Some great news is that the California delegation leadership came through with Invesco Field passes for about all guests of California delegates. Now my wife, Joan, will finally be able to attend part of the convention in person. And what a part it will be!

Day 2: Proud to be a Democrat

2008-08-28T07:22:00.000-07:00

Tuesday, Augusr 26

I came down to breakfast at 7:00 and immediately got into line to request a guest pass to the Pepsi Center for my wife for Tuesday. I was seventh on the list but did not get a call in the afternoon, which is when they distribute those precious ducats. It’s a mystery how they allocate the passes that they are able to get their hands on.

The next step was to show my ID to get my delegate pass for the day. Then it was into the large ballroom for breakfast. It’s served individually, but it consisted of a hash brown patty, two bacon strips, scrambled eggs, and three cooked cherry tomatoes. Not exactly what I needed or wanted if I’m watching fats and cholesterol. And my Jewish friends could only simply turn it down.

Three governors spoke to us after breakfast: David Patterson (New York), Ted Strickland (Ohio), and Joe Manchin (West Virginia). Governor Patterson is really, really impressive with his wit and his quick recall of facts and numbers.

After breakfast I attended a fascinating panel on "Taking Back America," sponsored by the AFL-CIO. AFL-CIO president John Sweeney introduced it. The panel was truly impressive: moderated by Ezra Klein and Harold Meyerson of The American Prospect, former UMW president and secretary-treasurer of the AFL-CIO Richard Trumka, Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.), Bennett College President Julianne Malveaux, economist Paul Krugman and journalist Robert Kuttner. There were some good lines I heard there which I’ll post later.

At noon I attended an Alliance Caucus of four labor unions, including my own (IFPTE), and met its international president, Greg Junemann, and our San Francisco Area business manager Mark Mitchell.

I could not stay long, and on my way out I noticed that Jim Wallis of Sojourners was in a panel next door, so I peeked in but then had be on my way right away. Back to the Sheraton where Emily’s List was having a gala program with Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Barbara Mikulski, and Nancy Pelosi. I did not attend, but picked up my wife’s ticket for her and pointed her in the right direction.

Right after that I caught the shuttle (which is a tour bus) to the Pepsi Center. Other than stoplights and many busses crowding the streets, the ride went without delay today. This time I was there by 3:00 and got to hear the invocation, say the Pledge of Allegiance, watch the presentation of the colors, and sing the national anthem.

Today was the day for women senators to speak, and were they good! We can rightly be proud of the Democratic women in the Senate. This was fairly early on in the convention schedule, and the place had only about half the number of people that would later occupy the Pepsi Center that night. But before and after Sen. Boxer spoke, the California delegation, being 10% of the total delegates, made its presence known. We made sure Sen. Boxer heard our cheers and yells. She waved to us from the stage.

Later, California state controller John Chiang spoke and did a great job. I’m sure you can find these individual speeches on Youtube, so I will link some of them later.

Seven governors spoke next, including all three that spoke to us in the morning. But Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana brought down the house. He was witty, funny, and engaging. At one point he launched into a really fun audience-response series of questions to be loudly and resoundingly answered “NO” about "John McCain – More of the Same." We all had our red signs to hold up that said that same thing.

Alabama’s Lily Ledbetter, who chose to fight discrimination against her based on gender in the workplace, delivered an address to the convention that was memorable, emotional and deeply troubling. It is astounding and wrong-headed that the Supreme Court ruled that she should have brought her case within six months of the discrimination occurring despite the fact that she did not know about it until years later. The new Congress must take up this matter and change this horrid law in January 2009. As Lily said, this is not a Democratic or Republican issue – it’s a fairness issue.

Mark Warner delivered the keynote speech. It was a decent speech, but it sounded like a speech he would make in running for senator from Virginia, which he is.

By this time the fire marshal had shut the doors to allow no one else into the convention. There were all kinds of people including little kids who had gained entrance with parents (some of whom I presume were dignitaries). This was all for Hillary Clinton’s speech.

Hillary hit it out of the ballpark with her speech. She came right out at the beginning and emphatically stated that Barack Obama will be her president. The crowd went wild at that. Of course, Hillary was greeted like a rock star. Each state delegation’s pages had passed out “Hillary” signs for us to wave. (About 4 or 5 different signs get passed out each day, each about 5 minutes before it’s time to wave them.) I think Hillary accomplished exactly what she had to do to achieve unity among the delegates at this convention.

By the time of her speech, the place had gotten very crowded. As I mentioned, the fire marshal would let no one else be admitted. We were told that if we left the floor (even for the restroom), we would not get back in. There was an area of seats next to us that had been reserved with masking tape. These were right next to the California sign where the delegation chairpersons have a station of phones and TV screen, and a small flat surface for papers. There is a young lady named Crystal (Art Torres' assistant) who is the “seat nazi” for these reserved seats, as she controls who gets to sit in them and when. When Hillary’s speech began, Steve Westly was sitting in front of me, Antonio Villaraigosa was next to him (he squeezed by me then climbed down a row to his seat), and Barbara Boxer was three seats to my left. It is all so amazing.

I noticed something interesting about Sen. Boxer during this speech. She applauded Hillary respectfully at the appropriate times. However, she did not take a sign to wave, and she stayed seated throughout the speech (most of us were alternately standing up and sitting down to applaud and wave signs). This was in contrast to earlier in the evening when she enthusiastically waved the “McCain, More of the Same” sign and also when we were all standing, swaying, and moving to the music. Just saying, not criticizing.

Day 2 was even better than Day 1. You might think six hours would be a very long time to be at this event, but it doesn’t seem like six hours with all the enthusiasm and adrenaline going. The concessions stands are open for food and drink (no alcohol). However, the ushers (guards?) that checked my credentials to get back inside wouldn’t let me bring the food I had purchased inside. I had to eat it before I went in. And I could not take my cup of Pepsi in either, but I was allowed to take a purchased ($3.25) bottle of water in.

A small group of us closed out the night at a party at Coors Field given by the airline pilots union and "Labor and Vets United." It was about a 25-minute stroll through LoDo, which was hopping with night life, to get to Coors. What a beautiful ballpark! The party was in the luxury suite section of the park. After that we walked back down the 16th Street Mall to the hotel. Even though it was late, we felt completely safe during the 20-minute walk back.

Day 1 Rocks!

2008-08-27T01:24:00.000-07:00

Monday, August 25

At noon, I went over to the Colorado Convention Center to attend the Rural Caucus. The convention center is where most of the Democratic interest group caucuses are taking place in late morning and early afternoon. One entrance is for delegates and other pass holders who can get in without a search. Others are subject to search at the other entrance.

Now you might wonder, how is Pleasanton rural? Well at one time it was, although that was far too long ago for me to remember, having moved there in 1987. However, I grew up in rural southwestern Pennsylvania, land of coal mines and farmland. My dad was a farmer for the first 10 years of my life. The rural lifestyle is indelibly etched in my mind.

Here is some of what I took away: What a lot of people fail to realize is that what rural people want is the same thing everyone else wants. And we can’t talk about helping rural folks without talking about making a profit. Small farmers and businessmen need to turn a profit or the rural lifestyles will not survive. These are America’s farmlands and energy production areas. A federal effort to rebuild energy infrastructure and retain manufacturing jobs would directly benefit rural America.

Jim Hightower (former Texas Ag commissioner) and Cecil Roberts (president of the United Mine Workers), were two of the speakers. Cecil Roberts is quite a fire-and-brimstone speaker! I got my photo taken with each one.

Outside the convention center (you need to understand that this is not the Pepsi Center where the convention is), there is a circus going on all day. There are all kinds of vendors hawking souvenirs, anti-abortion protesters holding grotesque banners, Code Pink people, people dressed in foam Statue of Liberty costumes, two people dressed up as pink pigs to advocate taxing meat to combat global warming, and police everywhere.

By the way, the weather here in Denver has been sunny and hot, temperatures about 90 and humid. I’m glad I brought plenty of shirts.

Lea, Ken and I caught the shuttle to the Pepsi Center right outside our hotel. It took an hour to get there because there was a traffic snafu along the way. Once we got there, it was a short walk to the security tents, where we had our bags searched and were given the once over with the metal detector wand. That was pretty fast though, and then it was a 300-yard walk to the Pepsi Center, where we all took photos to remember the occasion. The convention officially started at 3:00, and we got inside at 4:00. The live band was playing as we walked in. It was such an awesome and indescribable sight. The place was rocking with the huge stage and video screens and the music and the joy all around.

Once inside we entered the arena seating area and found out that the California section was on the other side from where we were. What a feeling it was to walk down those steps to the floor of the arena! This was it! This is what the long journey since February 2007 has been about! I am finally here to cast my vote on behalf of the voters of CD-11 for Barack Obama for our next president to restore our great nation, to take our country back! The choice in this election could not be starker. I am here to do my small part to save our country from the mediocrity, economic misery and malaise of the past 8 years.

If you can imagine in your mind the view looking toward the stage, the California section is to the right and occupying one and one-quarter sections of the lower bowl. These would be $75 and $50 seats at a Sharks game. In the shared section, Ohio has the first 7 rows, California has about 10 rows, and Georgia and Missouri are further up. Then we have all of the adjacent section.

Not every delegation is actually on the “floor,” which is the size of the Avalanche’s hockey rink. About 11 states are there, and they are the battleground states, except for Illinois and Delaware. I’m sure they are placed there for maximum TV visibility for those states viewers. The rest are in the lower bowl of the arena.

CNN is down on the actual floor right in front of our delegation. Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Donna Brazile, John King, and Jim Carville are sitting facing us, looking into their cameras. MSNBC"s Dick Gregory is also down on the floor to our left.

I was in heaven with my new digital SLR camera. I walked all around the floor snapping photos of anyone and anything. I took about 200 pictures and as soon as I can, I will upload a lot of them here.

We were all surprised that Ted Kennedy was here in person to speak. I was thinking maybe he’d send a video message. Everyone in the house loved “Uncle Teddy,” as Caroline called him in her introduction. He was magnificent in all respects as he riled up the crowd as only Ted Kennedy can do, touching on many of his signature issues.

Of course the highlight of Monday night was Michelle Obama. All day was like we were building to a crescendo with her speech. I think she hit just the right tone and message. The moment she talked about Barack driving home from the hospital with their newborn baby daughter was an emotional moment, especially for those of us who have done the exact same thing. I’m sure there was many a moist eye in the house. Michelle will make a great first lady. She has so much to offer, such an intelligent and caring lady and mother she is.

If Day 1 is any indicator, the rest of the convention promises to be a blast. I had a good idea what this convention would be like, but this has exceeded my expectations.

I missed breakfast!

2008-08-25T09:11:00.000-07:00

Today did not start well. I overslept and missed the entire delegation breakfast. It went until 10 a.m., and I got there at 9:50a.m. My mistake was in relying on the hotel alarm clock. It had a dinky little beep-beep-beep sound that did not wake me up. Tomorrow, I set it on the radio setting at full volume.

One of the wait staff at the ballroom was so kind to get me something to eat, while everyone else was buzzing about, talking to each other and the speakers. I was told that John Chiang, the state controller, was an excellent speaker.

Of course, Nancy Pelosi led things off, and there were a signs that had been passed out that said, “Madame Speaker!” I did manage to get one that was left under a table. I'm disappointed I missed her, but I take solace from having seen her at Netroots Nation last month.

Just over to my left now is Art Torres who has attracted a small crowd around him. Now I’m off to get my credential and maybe go to a Progressive Democrats of America event with the editor of “The Nation” magazine.

I'm here in Denver!

2008-08-25T09:06:00.000-07:00

Sunday, August 24

Today was the big day! My wife and I arrived in Denver at 2:30 p.m. on Frontier Airlines. We first met a helpful lady from the airline at the arrival gate who told me that when I fly out on Friday, I could use the preferred customer line to speed through check-in. I’ll take that.

After collecting our bags, we caught SuperShuttle to the Sheraton Hotel downtown, where the California and New York delegations are staying. The van made stops at four other hotels first. At the Hyatt Hotel, there were a huge number of police in riot gear lining the sidewalk. The police presence is tremendous. They wear this heavy riot gear, and they are always in groups of at least 5 or 6 and usually more.

After checking into the Sheraton, which was buzzing with activity, and finding our room, I found the California delegation check-in table downstairs below the lobby. I picked up an extra free ticket for my wife to attend the DNCC delegate welcome reception at the Colorado Convention Center, which is only three blocks away. I also signed my wife up on a list to receive a ticket to Invesco Field on Thursday, in the very unlikely event that any extras are available to the California delegation.

The reception was scheduled from 6 to 8 p.m. As it had already started, I hurried back to the room to get Joan. As I was waiting for the elevator, the door opened and out stepped Charlie Rangel! The New York delegation appeared to be having a reception nearby. I stood by as another person greeted him. Then he turned to me, I said hello, and we shook hands. Then he left. Damn! I had my camera with me, but I didn’t have it out. Next time I’ll be ready.

So Joan and I walked over to the Convention Center, walking by horde of souvenir vendors hawking buttons and $10 t-shirts. The center was crowded. As we entered the ballroom, Howard Dean was addressing the crowd, which was whooping it up. After sampling the Cajun fare (jambalaya, rice and red beans, crawdad pastry), and walking around a short time, we ran into Lea Austin (the other CD11 Obama delegate), Ken Richard, Maria Alegria, and a couple other Bay Area delegates. It was great to see them, chat and take some photos, and coordinate some future activities. By the way, Lisa V. in The Contra Costa Times featured both Ken and Lea with photos in a story today on the Bay Area delegates.

When it was time to leave the convention center there was a crowd outside consisting of souvenir hawkers, police, departing delegates, and a couple guys holding a picture of a fetus and saying nasty things about Obama and abortion.

Back to my room then to plan my first day of the convention on Monday. It begins with credentialing and a delegation breakfast program with Nancy Pelosi from 7:30 to 10:00 a.m. This will be only the second time that the whole delegation has been together, the first being in Sacramento on May 17.

Now a glimpse of the Olympic closing ceremonies, then off to bed for an exciting day tomorrow.

How to run for convention delegate

2008-06-16T09:55:00.000-07:00

The Northwest Progressive Institute offers some suggestions on how to run to be a convention delegate. Here is a good one on the "Do" list:

Do introduce yourself and provide some personal background. Highlight your greatest accomplishments or involvement with the party. Mention ideas or projects that you're responsible for instead of just saying that you volunteered on this or that campaign.

Angry Clinton Women (heart) McCain?

2008-06-15T22:44:00.000-07:00

I highly recommend the column by Frank Rich in today's New York Times.

You’d never guess that Mr. McCain is a fierce foe of abortion rights or that he voted to terminate the federal family-planning program that provides breast-cancer screenings. You’d never know that his new campaign blogger, recruited from The Weekly Standard, had shown his genuine affection for Mrs. Clinton earlier this year by portraying her as a liar and whiner and by piling on with a locker-room jeer after she’d been called a monster. “Tell us something we don’t know,” he wrote.

But while the McCain campaign apparently believes that women are easy marks for its latent feminist cross-dressing, a reality check suggests that most women can instantly identify any man who’s hitting on them for selfish ends. New polls show Mr. Obama opening up a huge lead among female voters — beating Mr. McCain by 13 percentage points in the Gallup and Rasmussen polls and by 19 points in the latest Wall Street Journal-NBC News survey.

How huge is a 13- to 19-percentage-point lead? John Kerry won women by only 3 points, Al Gore by 11.

Obama's Victory Speech

2008-06-11T21:26:00.000-07:00

Here is the text of Barack Obama's magnificent victory speech from St. Paul on June 3, when he clinched the nomination. And here is the video (to watch over and over). Savor the fruits of Part I of our work.

Part II comes to fruition on November 4.

If Being on this List is Official, then I'm an Official Delegate!

2008-06-11T19:13:00.001-07:00

The certified delegate report for California now is listed at the Denver Convention website, along with Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Democrats Abroad, District of Columbia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Here's the link to the pdf.

Obama Wins Texas! (finally)

2008-06-11T18:56:00.000-07:00

The Obama juggernaut continues to roll on, picking up the 99th delegate in Texas that the campaign has always claimed it had. You might recall that when it came to the final delegate selection at the Iowa and Nevada state conventions, Obama snagged an extra delegate in each one. Over the weekend in Texas, they did it again!

Here is my earlier post, predicting that this would happen.

Since the Texas two-step primary/caucus, the Obama campaign has claimed to have won 38 delegates in the Texas caucuses, in addition to 61 in the Texas primary (a total of 99 to Clinton’s 94). On the other hand, The Green Papers (and hence DemConWatch) has been showing Obama with 37 caucus delegates ever since the Texas County Conventions on March 30.

This appears to be because his percentage of state convention delegates that were chosen at the county conventions was just short of the threshold to earn that 38th delegate.

7239 delegates signed in at the state convention, compared to the 7298 that could have shown up (according to Stephanie Leavitt, the Deputy Finance Director of the Texas Democratic Party).

Specifically, 7,239 delegates signed in; 4,144 for Obama (57 percent) and 3,088 (43 percent) for Clinton. The 99-94 Obama edge doesn’t take in how 35 superdelegates from Texas will vote.

The state convention delegates elected 25 PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates and 42 at-large delegates. When you consider the PLEO and at-large delegates together, the threshold percentages required for election of national delegates becomes clear. With final numbers for Obama between 50 and 60% and with 7239 state convention delegates, the key numbers are:

53.572% (3879 state delegates) => 36 national delegates
54.001% (3910 state delegates) => 37
55.953% (4051 state delegates) => 38
58.001% (4199 state delegates) => 39
58.334% (4223 state delegates) => 40

4144 easily put Obama's count into 38-land. ("The Green Papers" has now updated its count.)

Based on the Burnt Orange Report spreadsheet, Obama had earned 4040 state convention delegates on March 30.

Also note that in its spreadsheet, BOR reported for Senate District 29 in El Paso County:

To be 'challenged' at the TDP convention, resulting in around 22 more delegates for Obama.

The quote marks around the word 'challenged' seem to indicate that this was a mere formality. Adding 22 to the 4040 Obama delegates gave 4062.

So somehow Obama picked up an extra 82 state convention delegates beyond the number selected on March 30 at the district caucuses. Yes We Can!

Watch the Convention Live Online!

2008-06-11T18:38:00.000-07:00

Go here to see the how-to.

Do you want to watch the Convention from the comfort of your living room, in your office or at your favorite coffee shop? Aaron Myers, Director of Online Communications, and Brook Colangelo, Director of Technology, explain how the Convention is coming to your living room—literally. ... catch all the action of the Convention live, from gavel-to-gavel and in HD right on your computer, from across town or across the world.

(Media player download required.)

A Day in the Life of a Delegate

2008-06-11T18:33:00.000-07:00

The Denver Convention Committee brings us:

Interested to know what delegates will do each day before heading to the main Convention event at the Pepsi Center? Cameron Moody, Deputy CEO for Outside the Hall Operations, breaks down a “day in the life” of a delegate, including an overview of the many different caucus and council meetings taking place at Colorado Convention Center.

Click here to see the show. (Media player download required.)

Second Green 960 Unity Day Video

2008-06-11T17:50:00.000-07:00

In this post I brought you the first YouTube video of Green 960 Unity Day with Thom Hartmann. Here is another one that Sebastian Kunz has posted.

Of course, this is the one where I stumbled trying to think of the word "vulnerable," as in "the most vulnerable among us." Never did think of it until I was on my way home.

Convention Week Activities Announced

2008-06-11T17:36:00.000-07:00

The Denver Convention Committee today announced some of the details of the events during convention week:

The official Convention events available to the public announced today include an open house at the Pepsi Center, daily Democratic caucus and council meetings and an interfaith gathering to kick off the week. The Convention will also be streamed live in HD on www.DemConvention.com.

Details on each activity and event, together with an overview of the Convention schedule are provided below. While these events are open to the public, registration or advanced ticketing is required. This information will be released in August and posted on www.DemConvention.com.

Daily Convention Schedule and Transportation

Official Convention events will begin in the early morning for delegates, usually with a private meeting of their state or territorial delegation at their hotel. Many delegates will then travel downtown for meetings of one of the Democratic caucuses or councils beginning at 10:00 a.m. at the Colorado Convention Center. The Convention program will gavel open each day at the Pepsi Center beginning at 4:00 p.m. and conclude by 9:00 p.m.

To help minimize the number of vehicles on the road, the DNCC has established an Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) accessible transportation system, 250 buses strong, for delegates and other Convention guests who will be staying in more than 100 Denver area hotels. These shuttles will operate between 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. and again in the late evening, minimizing any impact on rush hour traffic. Delegates will also be provided with passes for the RTD light rail and encouraged to use this efficient and environmentally sustainable transportation option.

Daily Caucus and Council Meetings

The Colorado Convention Center will be the center of daytime activities for delegates attending the Democratic caucuses and councils. These planning and business meetings of many of the different constituent groups within the Party will be open for the public to observe, however seating is limited and advanced registration will be required.

The African American, Asian Pacific Islander American (APIA), Hispanic, LGBT, and Women’s caucuses along with the Disability and Rural councils will each host two meetings during Convention week. For the first time ever, a People of Faith Council will also meet regularly throughout the week. The caucus and council meetings serve as an opportunity for delegates and Party leaders to meet, share information on important issues and discuss voter outreach and future organizing strategy for the Party. These events often feature national Party leaders and other high-profile guests.

Community Open House at the Pepsi Center

For one day during the week prior to the start of the Convention, local residents will be invited to tour the Pepsi Center and see first-hand where history will be made within the Convention hall. Beginning in July, the Pepsi Center will undergo a significant transformation from sports arena to Convention hall and will be equipped with the latest technology, seating for delegates from around the country and infrastructure for media from around the world.

The focal point of the Convention hall is the podium, which will serve as the platform from which the presumptive nominee will accept the nomination and will play host to an impressive list of Party leaders throughout the Convention. Given direction to “break the mold” this cycle, the DNCC production team designed the podium to anchor this technically savvy Convention and reflect throughout the week the energy, historic significance and enthusiasm of the Party and its nominee.

During the open house, local residents will be the first to get a glimpse of the innovative podium design before thousands of delegates and other special guests arrive in Denver. The date of the open house and ticketing information will be released in August.

Interfaith Gathering

To kick-off Convention week in a spirit of unity, the DNCC, in conjunction with the Democratic Party’s Faith in Action (FIA) Initiative, will host an interfaith gathering on Sunday, August 24th, beginning at 2:00 PM at the Wells Fargo Theater located in the Colorado Convention Center. This is the first time a celebration of this nature has been part of a Democratic National Convention and is symbolic of the Party’s desire to bring multiple communities together under its “big tent.” The gathering will include clergy of different faiths, Party leaders, elected officials and local community leaders. Speakers and musical guests will be announced later this summer. The event will be open to the public.

The FIA initiative, founded in 2005 by Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Governor Howard Dean and Convention CEO Daughtry, focuses on ways for the Democratic Party to work with communities of faith to work together to promote the common good.

The DNCC also announced plans today for the following offerings:

Delegate Service Day

In conjunction with Democrats Work, Metro Volunteers and Volunteers of America, the DNCC is coordinating a Delegate Service Day at sites throughout the Denver metro area on Wednesday, August 27th. Projects will range from canned food sorting to neighborhood and park cleanup and tree care. These events will allow delegates to both contribute to and celebrate the people and organizations making positive change and strengthening communities in the city hosting this historic Convention.

This event will serve as the capstone to a much broader service effort for the DNCC. In an effort to give back to the local community, Convention leaders and staff have participated in nine “DNCC Service Days,” contributing more than 560 hours to a variety of local efforts centered on youth, the environment and combined issues of hunger and homelessness.

Online Streaming of Convention

In an effort to engage as many people as possible in the Convention experience, the DNCC is using cutting-edge technology to “bring down the walls” of the Pepsi Center and make this year’s Convention the most accessible and tech-savvy event of its kind. The DNCC’s website, DemConvention.com, will stream live, gavel-to-gavel, HD coverage of the highest quality to a worldwide audience. Among the many features of this feed will be the ability for viewers to select their preferred camera angle, essentially allowing them to direct their own Convention coverage.

Continue to visit the DNCC’s website, www.DemConvention.com throughout the summer for more information on ticketing for the events mentioned above, schedules of events, speaker information and other details on any of the official public events.

The Democratic National Convention, held from August 25-28, 2008, is expected to pump an estimated $160 million into the Denver area’s economy and draw as many as 50,000 visitors to the region.

Only 20 to go after Puerto Rico!

2008-06-01T20:15:00.001-07:00

Puerto Rico goes 38-17. And Obama got two new supers today. The number of delegates needed to win the nomination is 2117. Obama has 2071 in the bank. He is guaranteed a minimum 17 pledged delegates in MT and SD, plus 9 more superdelegates that have said they will endorse him by June 4 (Jim Clyburn, Margie Campbell, Deb Kozikowski, plus the 6 Pelosi Club members: President Carter, Nancy and Christine Pelosi, Chris van Hollen, Denise Johnson, and Maria Cantwell).

So that leaves only 20 additional delegates for Obama to win. That can come from other superdelegates, from doing better in MT and SD, and from the 13.5 Edwards delegates.

MSNBC was speculating that Obama will already have lined up just barely enough supers prior to Tuesday night, so that the final delegates awarded in MT and SD will throw him over the total amount needed. Sounds good to me.

New Delegate Math based on Today's RBC Meeting!

2008-05-31T23:27:00.000-07:00

Following the Democratic Party Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting today, I have updated the delegate math based on their decisions. The new number of delegates needed to win the nomination is 2117. Obama has 2052 in the bank, and he is guaranteed a bare minimum of 32 pledged delegates based on the allocation rules of the last 3 primaries, plus 8 more superdelegates that have said they will endorse him in June. So that leaves only 25 additional delegates for Obama to win. That can come from other superdelegates, from doing better than the bare minimum in PR, MT and SD, and from the 13.5 Edwards delegates.

I predict Obama will bring it all home on Tuesday night in Montana. Then it's on to the general.

Unity Day with Thom Hartmann

2008-05-31T23:09:00.000-07:00

Here's a 5-minute highlight reel from the Unity Day event on Thursday. Neither Laura Spanjian nor I get to talk on this one. It's mostly Thom Hartmann speaking, and he has a lot good to say.

At the end, it does say to "watch this space" for a complete audio podcast and more exclusive video coming soon. I'll bring that to you when it shows up at the Green 960 site.

I need your suggestion...

2008-05-30T01:40:00.000-07:00

When I am at the Democratic National Convention as a delegate on the floor of the Pepsi Center, I plan to blog here about my experiences. I will certainly post from the hotel where the California and New York delegations are staying (the Sheraton). But I also want to be able to post from inside the Pepsi Center, including photos that I take there. Carrying around a laptop on the convention floor does not seem advisable nor practical, as there will at times be a crush of people around me. Also I expect to be doing a lot of meeting other delegates on the floor, and conducting convention business. Maybe the good folks at Calitics, the DNC-accredited blog that will be blogging from the California location on the floor, will let me freeload on their bandwidth.

I am able to post to this blog via a special email address that Google gave me. My problem is that I do not have a mobile device that sends email and can include photos in the email. Do you think that such a device would be a good solution? What devices would you recommend from your experience that could fill this bill? Is it easy to compose, send and receive email, as well as attach photos to the email? Is there some other solution that I have not thought of?

I was on a Panel with Thom Hartmann at Green 960

2008-05-30T00:55:00.000-07:00

Hey, tonight I was in Redwood City at an event called Unity Day, sponsored by radio station, Green 960. Thom Hartmann (yes, that one!) and Angie Coiro led a panel discussion, and I was the Obama national convention delegate on the panel! There was one Clinton delegate that came, Laura Spanjian, who had agreed to be on the panel beforehand. I had called and discussed the event with John Scott, the program director, on Wednesday. But I had no idea how many delegates were going to be there. Only after I arrived and introduced myself in person to John Scott was I asked to be on the panel. They wanted the panel to be balanced, so they went with one Obama delegate and one Clinton delegate.

So basically, Thom Hartmann asked Laura and myself some interesting questions for almost an hour. It was not about rehashing the past, but rather looking forward to where we go as Clinton and Obama supporters together. There were about 300 people there I'd say. It was not broadcast on air, but it was videotaped for the station to put on their website, Green960.com. It's not there on the site now, but check it in the next day or so. I'll post the link when it becomes available. Aside from my saying at one point that Hillary would make a much better president than Bush (DUH!!) and later searching for the word "vulnerable" and not finding it, I thought it went very well. What a thrill that I had not expected!

Obama needs only 2 more delegates to win! Tomorrow?

2008-05-29T22:03:00.000-07:00

Actually he needs 1.5 but because all the Democrats Abroad delegates (who only have half-votes) have spoken, it will take two whole people. Today we learn via DemConWatch that Obama snagged 4 superdelegate endorsements to Clinton's 1. One of them, DNC member Betty Richie of Texas, is a Pelosi Club member, so the count of undeclared Pelosi Club members drops to 5 (Nancy and Christine Pelosi, Jimmy Carter, Chris van Hollen, and Denise Johnson).

So here is how the math adds up right now:

The math closely aligns with the methodology used in the great diaries at DailyKos by PocketNines, most recently here. If you have a concern about how the guaranteed future delegate count is arrived at, PocketNines offers a full explanation.

I use DemConWatch as my main source (as does DailyKos), and DemConWatch uses The Green Papers as its source. For Hillary's superdelegate number, I use the number reported by the Obama results website. The campaign has its finger on the pulse and often shows a few more supers committed to Hillary than DCW does.

The gray and sky-blue shaded cells are for manual input. The values in the gray cells can change but do so infrequently. The values in the blue-shaded cells are the ones that change most often and which I check daily.

Regarding the differences from the Obama website:

I am already counting Donna Edwards as a superdelegate for Obama. She is a lock to win the special election in Maryland on June 17, at which time she becomes a super. She has already endorsed Obama.

I am counting the two pledged Clinton delegates from Maryland and DC who switched to Obama. I agree they are jerks, however, a vote is a vote.

Texas: Here is my diary on the Texas caucus delegate situation from last week. This will be resolved at the state convention on June 7.

Louisiana: Here is a comment I made on another previous diary of mine. Obama's site is wrong. Louisiana has named actual live breathing people for all its delegate slots, so that should settle it.

Comments and suggestions accepted. Can you believe we do this for fun?

List of California Delegation Members

2008-05-26T14:22:00.000-07:00

Here is the list of all 553 delegates, alternates, and committee members comprising the California delegation at the 2008 Democratic National Convention. Sources are here, here and here.

I am providing this because it does not yet appear here. Inquiring minds might want to know.

First up, the undeclared superdelegates:
Rep. Susan Davis, San Diego
Rep. Sam Farr, Salinas
Rep. Bob Filner, Chula Vista
Rep. Mike Honda, Campbell
Rep. Jerry McNerney, Pleasanton
DNC Hon. Carole Migden, San Francisco
DNC Bob Mulholland, Chico
Rep. Nancy Pelosi, San Francisco
DNC Christine Pelosi, Washington DC (office)
DNC John Perez, Los Angeles
DNC Robert Rankin, Carson
DNC Art Torres, San Francisco
DNC Steve Ybarra, Sacramento

Nancy and Christine Pelosi have stated they will endorse the leader in pledged delegates, i.e., Obama.

"District-level" delegates and alternates are the ones who ran campaigns and were competitively elected to their seats (including me, for Obama!). The delegate types, "Unpledged PLEO" and "Unpledged Add-On," included in the table below are superdelegates who have now pledged themselves for either Obama or Clinton.

California DNC Delegation List 2008 - Upload a doc

Obama-Clinton Delegate Calculator

2008-05-26T14:19:00.000-07:00

2008 DNC Delegates - Upload a doc

Rating Obama’s Jedi Master

2008-05-21T14:28:00.000-07:00

Eons ago, back in February, Bloomberg News obtained a detailed spreadsheet that was inadvertently released by the Obama campaign. The spreadsheet was the topic of this diary at the time. The Bloomberg reporters posted it at this location. The prognosticator was Jeffrey Berman, the “Obama campaign’s unsung hero" and Jedi master.

In it, the campaign analyzed about twelve scenarios for all the state-by-state races after the February 5 Super Tuesday, including projected splits in the popular vote and the delegate totals. Only one scenario is in this spreadsheet, but you should take a look at it. It is fascinating to see what the Obama campaign predicted at the time and where they saw the race going.

Now that Obama has clinched the lead in pledged delegates and nearly clinched the nomination, let’s check out exactly how good Jeffrey Berman's wizardry actually was.

It is remarkable how accurate the predictions were, and it’s interesting to see where the results deviated significantly. I put together the following chart to illustrate the difference between the forecast on February 6 and the actual results of the primaries and caucuses.

2008 DNC Delegates vs Jeffrey Berman forecast - Upload a doc

The chart shows the differences in both popular vote percentage and number of delegates earned. The delegate numbers show the results for caucus states through the local and state conventions that have been held so far. For example, on May 16, Nevada provided an extra delegate for Obama at Clinton’s expense. The actual results are based on The Green Papers tallies.

The Green Papers and this chart do not include the one extra delegate that the Obama campaign claims for each Louisiana and Texas (although the extra Obama caucus delegate(s) in Texas may yet appear on June 7). (The popular vote shown for Texas in the chart is for the primary.)

The Obama results also exclude the Edwards delegates that have now endorsed Obama, as well as the two Clinton pledged delegates from DC and MD that switched to Obama.

State W-L
On February 6, the forecast for the remaining 27 contests was for 19 wins and 8 losses. So far, Obama has 17 wins and 7 losses, matching the predicted number of wins and losses to date. MT, SD and PR will go 2 and 1, for a final record of (drum roll, please) 19 wins and 8 losses. The Obama campaign did not project to win Maine, but he won it anyway. On the other hand, Indiana went from his winner column over to a narrow loss to Clinton.

Popular Vote Variance
Obama had double-digit over-performances in the popular vote percentage in VA, DC, HI, ME, and VI, all winning contests for him. In fact, the day of the Potomac Primary was exceptional for exceeding the forecast not only in VA and DC, but also in MD (by 7%). Most notable was the winning vote margin in Virginia. It had been forecast to be tight at 1.2%, but it ballooned to a 14% margin. In Hawaii, total turnout for the caucuses was a magnitude higher than it had ever been, and the result was a 24% blowout for favorite son Obama.

Obama under-performed in the popular vote in eight states, although by less than 1.7% each in four of them (OH, RI, MS and PA). He lost OH, RI and PA, and even though he garnered a slightly smaller percentage of votes in Mississippi than had been predicted five weeks earlier, his winning margin over Clinton there was nearly 25%.

In Guam, Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky he received, respectively, 4%, 3%, 17% and 12% less of the popular vote than had been forecast by the campaign. Nevertheless, he won Guam (by 7 votes). In Indiana a switch of 7210 Limbaugh-influenced Clinton votes would have given him the state. As for WV and KY, what else is there to say? As DHinMI has often noted, "Appalachia has an Obama problem."

Delegate Count Variance
Leaving aside a half-delegate under-perform in the Democrats Abroad primary (where Obama crushed Clinton anyway), Obama under-performed the campaign forecast in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky, all of which turned out to be very tough for him to win. Of the 22 fewer delegates garnered in those states, 19 were lost in Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky. Excluding Indiana, the campaign on February 6 had not even expected to win the other four states, each of which later exhibited varying degrees of the Appalachia syndrome.

Obama more than made up for it in Maryland, Virginia, Texas, and North Carolina, where he gained 28 more delegates than had been forecast. And for a one-day over-performance, it’s hard to top the day of the Potomac Primary, when VA, DC and MD produced 19 more delegates than the campaign had expected (exactly offsetting the IN, WV and KY losses).

Of the 24 contests held since February 6, the Obama delegate numbers for nine of them were within one delegate of what had been forecast (including five that were spot on). Another seven were within three delegates.

Overall so far, Obama has over-performed by 28.5 delegates compared to the February 6 prediction.

If it were I that had received that forecast on February 6, and then witnessed the kind of results that we see here, I’d say Jeffrey Berman deserved a big, fat raise — and then some time off on August 29.

P.S.: Here's a snapshot of part of the famous spreadsheet:

As many of us remember, Ben Smith at Politico offered this comment on the campaign spreadsheet at the time it was “released” in February:

The scenario considered in the Bloomberg story foresees the widely anticipated Obama roll through the Potomac Primary, and Clinton victories in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Crucially, it doesn't forecast any blowouts with huge delegate margins; Washington State's caucus, by this projection, offers Obama his widest margin, 20 delegates.

The scenario "projects Obama will end up in June with 1,806 of the delegates who select the party's nominee to 1,789 for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton." That's a count that gives her a 50-delegate lead among superdelegates, and him a 67-delegate lead among pledged delegates.

Isn’t it nice to be able to breathe easier now, compared to then, with Obama’s relatively large lead?

California Delegation Meeting in Sacramento

2008-05-20T16:26:00.000-07:00

If you want to know how the California Delegation Meeting in Sacramento on May 18 went, check out this HuffPo piece by William Bradley. Just so you know, I was there. Steve Westly led us in a rousing cheer of "Yes, We Can," after all the 107 or so Obama delegates had gone around the room and introduced themselves and stated where they were from, as the Obama facilitator asked. They did that all right, but also discussed which district they represented, what cities the district covers, how they were involved in the Obama campaign, what other political efforts they were involved in, what posts they held in various official and non-official organizations, etc. Twice we were asked to keep it short. (I had spoken near the beginning, so I was under no such time pressure.) Any time you ask a group of activist Democrats to stand up and talk, you know it's not going to be short!

Iowa, Nevada … Texas?

2008-05-20T09:43:00.000-07:00

Did you see that Obama picked up another national delegate in Nevada on Saturday? The campaign’s tactical organization at the county- and state-level caucuses and conventions continues to deliver results. Can they do it again in Texas on June 7?

Since the day after the Texas two-step primary/caucus, the Obama campaign has claimed to have won 38 delegates in the Texas caucuses, in addition to the 61 in the Texas primary (a total of 99 to Clinton’s 94). On the other hand, The Green Papers (and hence DemConWatch) has been showing Obama with 37 caucus delegates ever since the Texas County Conventions on March 30. This appears to be because his percentage of state convention delegates that were chosen at the county conventions is just short of the threshold to earn that 38th delegate.

Curious, I emailed Stephanie Leavitt, the Deputy Finance Director of the Texas Democratic Party, to find out the number of delegates to the Texas State Democratic Convention on June 5-7. The answer is 7298 delegates. (FWIW, that number does not include the State Democratic Executive Committee and County Chairs.)

Back on March 30, Burnt Orange Report, at this diary, was all over the County Conventions, in which those state delegates were chosen. There are some instructive comments attached to the BOR diary. There I learned this information:

On June 7 the state convention delegates will elect 25 PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates and 42 at-large delegates using separate election criteria. But if you consider the PLEO and at-large delegates together, the threshold percentages required for election of national delegates becomes clear. With final numbers for Obama between 50 and 60% and with 7298 state convention delegates, the key numbers are:

53.572% (3910 state delegates) => 36 national delegates
54.001% (3941 state delegates) => 37
55.953% (4084 state delegates) => 38
58.001% (4233 state delegates) => 39
58.334% (4258 state delegates) => 40

Based on the Burnt Orange Report spreadsheet, Obama has 4040 state convention delegates to Clinton’s 3318. Obama’s share is 55.4% of the 7298 total.

But note that sum of Clinton and Obama state delegates is 7358, not 7298. Perhaps there was some attrition in the final delegate count. In fact, BOR’s spreadsheet shows that some counties elected too many delegates. In any event, assuming that Obama alone had to shed all 60 of the “excess” state delegates, Obama’s minimum would be 3980 delegates (54.5%), still firmly ensconced with at least 37 national delegates.

Also note that in its spreadsheet, BOR reports for Senate District 29 in El Paso County:

To be 'challenged' at the TDP convention, resulting in around 22 more delegates for Obama.

The quote marks around the word 'challenged' seems to indicate that this will be a mere formality. Adding 22 to the 4040 Obama delegates gives 4062. This is just short of the 4084 delegates needed to pick up 38 delegates.

Can Obama snag that 38th delegate that his campaign has been claiming all along? Obama would need somewhere in the range of 22 to 82 Clinton state delegates to switch to him on June 7 to grab it.

Is the Obama campaign counting on their superb organizational skills, as evidenced recently in Nevada and Iowa, to pick up an extra national delegate or two in Texas? We’ll see on June 7.

Obama Mystery Delegates - We Need Detective Work!

2008-05-14T14:13:00.000-07:00

Has anyone noticed that the pledged delegate totals on the Obama website differ from the those on the DKos front page (which are obtained from DemConWatch, which gets the numbers from The Green Papers). The Obama campaign claims three more delegates than DCW and GP show, one each in Lousiana, Texas, and Washington.

The reason Obama does not get "official" credit for these delegates is because of missing data. It's likely that a few people are holding it close to the vest. Also, DCW even suggests that "something fishy" may be going on in Lousiana.

The challenge for us is to use our collective detective work to pry this data loose. By doing this, we could nail down 1, 2 or even 3 more pledged delegates in the "official" count for Obama.

DemConWatch says there is good reason to believe that the Obama count could be right in all three cases.

According to a May 1 post on DemConWatch, there is good reason to believe that the Obama count could be right in all three of these cases.

Here is where the discrepancies lie:

State:	Obama Campaign	DCW/GP	Possible Obama Pick-up
Louisiana	34-22	33-23	+1
Texas	38-29	37-30	+1
Washington	53-25	52-26	+1

From DemConWatch:

LA: GP suggest 33:23 due to official source, Obama has it 34:22; the official source can't explain why they have one more delegate for Clinton in CD2, also they don't give the final numbers CD-by-CD; IMHO - something fishy, probably the campaign has filed an appeal and that is why [the Obama campaign is sticking] with the correct (IMHO) 34:22 result.

TX: caucus results are still not final so both sources have different projection - campaign has 99:94, GP has 98:95 (more probable if the race is not over before June 7th)

WA: again different projections GP has 52:26, Obama campaign has 53:25; our experts here found that at-large and PLEOs in the state are not allocated based on popular vote, they are chosen by the CD pledged delegates; that makes 53:25 impossible projection and most probable projections are 52:26 and 54:24 (less probable); I am making attempts to find all LD conventions results and predict the outcome of the CD conventions, but results are very hard to obtain...

This calls for some sleuthing by people on the ground in Louisiana, Texas, and Washington.

In Louisiana, we need to find out the final vote tally in CD2. This will determine whether one of the CD2 pledged delegates that is now counted for Clinton should really be for Obama. Right now the count DCW count shows CD-2 at Obama 3, Clinton 2. It might really be 4-1. Also, we need to know if the Obama campaign has in fact filed an appeal.

Texas has a 3-tier system of conventions to determine the split of caucus delegates. The State (Tier 3) Convention on June 7 will identify the persons who will be the 67 caucus-chosen delegates. In Texas, we need the final caucus results coming out of the County and Senate District (Tier 2) Conventions that were held on March 29. This will help determine if the split will be 38-29 (as the Obama campaign says) or 37-30. Green Papers bases their estimated 37-30 split based on incomplete numbers from Burnt Orange Report:

Here is how we estimate the STATEWIDE delegate count (based on partial and unofficial results of the 30 March 2008 County Conventions from Burnt Orange Report as of 7 April 2008 with 93.90% of the delegate's presidential preferences indicated):

In the end we will know the final split in Texas on June 7:

Friday 6 June - Saturday 7 June 2008: The State Convention will choose the remaining 67 pledged delegates. ... 67 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the presidential preference of the delegates at the State Convention as a whole.
42 at-large National Convention delegates
25 Pledged PLEOs

Washington also has a three-tier caucus system to select national delegates. There are 17 at-large and 10 PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates to be chosen at the State Convention on Saturday, June 15. These are all part of the 78 national delegates that were at stake on February in the Washington caucuses.

In order to predict how these 27 will be split, we would need all the Legislative District (LD) caucus results from April 19. Apparently these LD caucus-chosen delegates make up something called the Election Committee, and it is this committee who will choose the final 27 national pledged delegates on June 15:

Sunday 15 June 2008: State Convention. The delegates to the Election Committee choose the remaining delegates to the National Convention. 27 pledged delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the presidential preferences of the Election Committee as a whole. ...
17 at-large National Convention delegates
10 Pledged PLEOs

Can anyone in the great state of Washington help out here? Even if you could find out the results of just one of the LD caucuses from April 19, that would help.

Your Instructions
Detectives, please post your clues in the comments below (bookmark this diary so you can find it later). Also, you should post any good information directly to this site for the nice people at DemConWatch.

OK, detectives, get going, and remember, let's be careful out there!

P.S.: You might also notice that the "official" count includes an extra delegate from Maryland for Obama that Obama's website does not show. This is because yesterday a pledged Clinton delegate flipped to Obama!

Cross posted at Daily Kos.

New Magic Number after May 6

2008-05-07T06:16:00.000-07:00

The results below are based on the Obama website, with the Dems Abroad split corrected from 5-2 to 4.5-2.5.

Delegates:	Pledged	Super	Total	Needed
Obama	1,592.5	259	1,851.5	172.5
Clinton	1,424.5	276	1,700.5	323.5
Remaining	217	260	477
(2,024.5 delegates needed for victory)

Tonight Obama clinched a majority of pledged delegates

2008-05-07T01:21:00.000-07:00

With tonight's results in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama has now clinched a majority of pledged delegates. He won 66 in NC and 34 in IN.

After today there are 37 mini-races left in the remaining primary states and PR. Obama will be viable in all of them.

The percentage threshold for viability is very low, and Obama has been viable in every single district in the country where delegates have been awarded. That means the bare minimum number of pledged delegates he will get in the last six primaries is 37.

That, together with tonight's results, put him over the 1627 delegates needed to win a majority of the pledged delegates.

The Obama website says that he has 1593 pledged delegates after tonight. Add 37 and that is 1630.
If you use the Obama pledged total from the Green Papers, which is 1589.5 and then add 37, the result is 1626.5. Demconwatch uses GP as its source, so they show exactly what GP shows, by hook or by crook.
However, Amot, one of the Demconwatch bloggers, made a convincing case that the real Obama total was 1.5 more than what GP showed at the time of Amot's posting. GP had shown America Samoa and Louisiana as having 0.5 and 1 fewer Obama delegates, respectively, than he believed was correct. GP now has the correct AS split of 2-1. So just correct for LA (i.e., add 1) so that 1590.5 is the Obama total, in which case 37 more is 1627.5.
GP also shows 1 fewer Obama delegate each for Texas and Washington, as well as 0.5 delegate less for Democrats Abroad, as compared to Obama's site. Amot says that the results of the caucuses in those two states are not final yet, and apparently GP and Obama have different sources. He also says that the 4.5 - 2.5 split for DA is correct, not the 5-2 split that Obama's site has. So subtract 2.5 from 1593 to get 1590.5, which agrees with the previous bullet item.

The Magic Number after Guam and LA-6

2008-05-04T14:02:00.000-07:00

We have a new superdelegate today after Don Cazayoux won the special election in Louisiana-6, in a district that Democrats ordinarily would not win.

The results below are based on the Obama website.

Delegates:	Pledged	Super	Total	Needed
Obama	1,494	258	1,752	273
Clinton	1,336	275	1,611	414
Remaining	404	263	667
(2,025 delegates needed for victory)

The Magic Number

2008-05-02T13:05:00.000-07:00

The Magic Number
Based on http://origin.barackobama.com/resultscenter as of May 2.

The Magic Number(2,024 delegates needed)
Barack Obama	1,747	278
Hillary Clinton	1,608	417

My 3 Top Issues: Poverty, Health Care, War

2008-05-01T14:22:00.000-07:00

(After I was elected as an Obama pledged delegate, the Obama campaign asked me to fill out an information form. One question asked me to explain my top three issues. Below is my response.)

Basic principles drive my positions on the issues. Jesus the Christ directs us to Love God, Love our Neighbor, Help the Poor, and Help the Outcast. As a result, the three issues that are most important to me are poverty, healthcare and the Iraq war.

Why should any child suffer from poverty, hunger and lack of health care, when we, the wealthiest nation in the world, have the resources and the means to eradicate suffering among our most vulnerable citizens, our nation’s children, who have no voices?

For 47 million Americans to be without health insurance, and for a very high proportion of them to be children, is just plain wrong. Even in the absence of this shocking truth, for our government to deny the basic dignity of health care for all of its citizens is an immoral transgression.

Why should we continue to squander our treasure and the lives of our military heroes in Iraq at outrageous expense to our society? If we instead used these precious resources wisely, think of the social injustices that could be effectively addressed, the societal good that that could be procured, and the wrongs that could be made right, most of it here within our own borders.

My views on poverty, the war, healthcare and government’s role are exemplified by the following quotations:

“The care of human life and happiness, and not their destruction, is the first and only object of good government.” – Thomas Jefferson
“Government is a contrivance of human wisdom to provide for human wants. Men have a right that these wants should be provided for by this wisdom.” – Edmund Burke
“The good we secure for ourselves is precarious and uncertain until it is secured for all of us and incorporated into our common life.” – Jane Addams
“Washing one's hands of the conflict between the powerful and the powerless means to side with the powerful, not to be neutral.” – Paulo Freire
“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” – Edmund Burke
“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.” – MLK Jr.
“Justice is itself the great standing policy of civil society; and any eminent departure from it, under any circumstances, lies under the suspicion of being no policy at all.” – Edmund Burke
“Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.” – MLK Jr.

Poverty:

“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.” – FDR
“For I was hungry, and you fed me. I was thirsty, and you gave me a drink. I was a stranger, and you invited me into your home. …Then these righteous ones will reply, `Lord, when did we ever see you hungry and feed you?’ Or thirsty and give you something to drink? … And the King will tell them, `I assure you, when you did it to one of the least of these my brothers and sisters, you were doing it to me!’ ” – The Gospel of Matthew
“Of course people cannot contribute to the nation if they are never taught to read or write; if their bodies are stunted from hunger; if their sickness goes untended; if their life is spent in hopeless poverty, just drawing a welfare check.

“So we want to open the gates to opportunity. But we're also going to give all our people, black and white, the help that they need to walk through those gates. My first job after college was as a teacher in Cotulla, Texas, in a small Mexican-American school. Few of them could speak English and I couldn't speak much Spanish. My students were poor and they often came to class without breakfast and hungry. And they knew even in their youth the pain of prejudice. They never seemed to know why people disliked them, but they knew it was so because I saw it in their eyes.

“I often walked home late in the afternoon after the classes were finished wishing there was more that I could do. But all I knew was to teach them the little that I knew, hoping that I might help them against the hardships that lay ahead. And somehow you never forget what poverty and hatred can do when you see its scars on the hopeful face of a young child.” – Lyndon B. Johnson

War:

“A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual doom.” – MLK Jr.

“Wars are poor chisels for carving out peaceful tomorrows.” – MLK Jr.

Healthcare:

“Of all the forms of inequality, injustice in health care is the most shocking and inhumane.” – MLK Jr.

Obama vs Clinton Health Care Plans

2008-04-29T21:58:00.000-07:00

As I said that I would do in my last post, I have studied and compared the high-level information on the health insurance plans of both Clinton and Obama. Just as I was finishing this post, I read the following:

Regardless of the Presidential campaign and proposals, it is important to have strong better options coming out of Congress.

Here are the four simple questions to ask of any health care proposal:

1. Is it Universal (covers all people)... but just that is not enough, you must also find out how the proposal deals with items 2, 3 & 4:

2. Is it Comprehensive (does it cover all needed conditions, prevention, treatment)?

3. How much is it going to Cost Individuals; is it affordable year-in and year-out and can you afford to get sick (their total cost in taxes, premiums, deductibles, copays, uncovered conditions/expenses, total out of pocket...)?

4. How much is it going to Cost Overall, total cost of the system to the country (and yes, we do need overall cost-control); and how is it paid for, and who is paying, all the pieces, direct and indirect?

As it turns out, these are also the concerns that I had in mind and that shaped my analysis. For that analysis, I used the side-by-side comparison found here. The comparison breaks out the provisions of each plan in 13 categories.

I think the merits of each plan can best be assessed by digging deep into the details to a greater degree than is presented at the link above. However, I have based my comparison on the information at this link, and it still took me a fair amount of time to do so. So of course, there are questions that I have that would require still more detailed information to answer (the devil is in the details, as they say). But I will use what I have, which I think is more than most voters would stop to consider.

I copied the table at the link into a Word document and appended an extra column in which I entered my comments. I also inserted some of my questions in the text as I was reading through the document, using the Insert, Comment menu function. These can be viewed by selecting the View, Markup menu function or the Show, Reviewing Pane function on the Reviewing Toolbar.

I used yellow highlighting for provisions that I considered most noteworthy. I used other highlight colors to point out some important provisions in both plans that are similar or identical to each other.

Based on my comparison, there are four important categories in which I judge that Clinton’s plan has an advantage over Obama’s plan, based solely on the information in the document. These are:

Expanding access to coverage
Premium subsidies to individuals
Premium subsidies to employers
Changes to private insurance

On the other hand, I am concerned about the effect of each plan on the national deficit. The estimated cost of Clinton’s plan when fully phased in is $110 billion per year. At that level, I wonder how we will prevent the deficit from ballooning even further out-of-control. My hope is that we as a nation would have the political will to re-set our national priorities to emphasize health care for all over war and dubious, unnecessary, multi-billion dollar weapons programs.

Obama’s plan is estimated to cost about half of Clinton’s plan. If economists and accountants agree that it actually would cost that amount, then that fact could make it more politically palatable in order to get it passed. I am still skittish about the 1994 collapse of national health care. The best plan in the world isn’t worth anything if we can’t get it passed into law.

Is Clinton’s plan far-and-away better than Obama’s? I don’t think so. However, based on what I now know, I do judge Clinton’s plan overall to be the better plan.

"Why are you for Obama rather than for Clinton?"

2008-04-26T09:45:00.000-07:00

In my campaigning to be elected as a California Obama delegate to the Democratic National Convention, one of the people I contacted by email wrote back:

Can you explain why you're for Obama rather than for Clinton?

I will be honest--and I'm embarrassed to admit it--but I know very little about their platforms. I know that Paul Krugman thinks that Clinton's health plan will cover twice as many people as Obama's. That seems very important. Also, heard on the news today that Obama's (military?) adviser thinks that the Iraq pull-out should start in 2010.

If you've campaigned so furiously for Obama, you must think he is the better candidate--and I assume that you think that he will put better policies in place.

What about beating McCain? My feeling is that Clinton would have a better shot at beating McCain.

Since you are so active politically, why not have an email list of like-minded acquaintances who you communicate regularly with? I would like to be on that email list!

Here is how I replied:

The last week (before April 13) has been kind of crazy. I was at the San Joaquin County Democratic Central Committee on Saturday, Alameda County Central Labor Council on Monday, Stockton Democratic Club on Tuesday and the Tracy Democratic Club tonight. The good part is that things are looking really positive for the election in which I am running.

I picked up some voter lists at the San Joaquin County Registrar of Voters office when I was there yesterday. These are for the precincts surrounding Williams Middle School in Tracy. On Saturday we will be walking the neighborhood asking Democrats that live near the school to come on out and vote for Lea (Austin, my “slate-mate”) and me.

Our party is blessed to have had three great candidates, each of whom could have made or will make an excellent president, or even be among the greatest presidents. I have the utmost respect for all three of them, including Senator Clinton. I do not seek to disparage any of our candidates. I would have voted and will proudly vote for any one of them
as our party's nominee.

You raise some good questions, and that led me to dig up some information that compares the healthcare plans of the three people left standing. I will study that information carefully. I think that both of the Democratic plans are far superior to what we have now.

As for troop pullout from Iraq, everything I have heard from Obama's own mouth says it would start in 2009.

Yes, I do think that Obama is the better candidate, in fact the one candidate that would be able to lead our country in the new direction that it desperately needs to go. I think that his policies would be more progressive than those of the Democratic Leadership Council to which Senator Clinton belongs. The DLC is a centrist organization that operates mostly to the detriment of the necessary future direction of the Democratic Party, in my opinion.

A big factor in my support of Obama is his judgment. I have the utmost confidence in his judgment to say and do the best thing in any given situation. I also admire his world-view, largely based on his childhood upbringing, as well as his innate vision of what our country can become and what needs to be done to get us there. I believe he will restore our integrity among the community of nations. I think he will demonstrate bold vision as president and implement bold initiatives, and even accomplish these things with bipartisan support. His can be a transformative presidency, rising above the partisanship that wreaks havoc in Washington, and leading others above it as well. Unfortunately, I think that Senator Clinton suffers from too much negative perception among many Americans, and that would seriously impair her ability to accomplish the same thing.

On the electability question, I feel strongly that Obama will beat McCain and that Clinton would have a much tougher fight against McCain than Obama. I have talked to people, including Republicans, and observed polling results that show that Obama will draw significant support from independents and even Republicans, which would not be the case for Senator Clinton.

By the way, I am not trying to win over Clinton supporters to vote for me instead of attending their own caucus. Each presidential candidate already has a determined number of delegate positions, and I figure that it would be an honor and a privilege for me to fill one of Obama's slots and represent the 11th Congressional District as one of Barrack Obama's pledged delegates.

As for communicating with other like-minded acquaintances on a regular basis, I will most definitely be doing that on Kephalos!

Obama's Army

2008-04-26T09:44:00.000-07:00

Current TV is showing their footage of Obama's Texas operation. Check out that woman in a cowboy hat about 2 1/2 minutes in. Is that Maggie Fleming?

Great, inspiring video:

http://current.com/items/88906122_obama_s_army

Poor Judgment

2008-02-20T22:19:00.000-08:00

Who is the epitome of poor judgment?

From lawprofessor at DailyKos:

From here on out, Dems, and especially Obama, who has made his own good judgment a major campaign theme, should be tying McCain to the phrase "poor judgment."

As one of the Keating Five, McCain was officially
reprimanded for having "poor judgment."

He showed poor judgment in supporting the decision to invade Iraq and continues to show poor judgment in wanting to stay there.

He shows poor judgment in continuing to embrace and validate the poor judgments of a president with a 19% approval rating. And the very most charitable characterization of the NYT revelations is that McCain has consistently exercised poor judgment in his association with lobbyists.

"Maybe they're just not into you."

2008-01-06T01:36:00.000-08:00

Karen Tumulty of Time has an online article that quotes a senior Democratic strategist close to the Clinton campaign. I think the strategist hits the nail on the head. It's what I've been thinking for some time (emphasis mine):

But it's possible that the most difficult problem is not Obama; it could be Clinton. How can she retool her message — and her identity as a virtual incumbent — to resonate with an electorate that seems to yearn more for change than any other quality? Says one longtime Democratic strategist, who is close to the Clintons: "Fundamentally, she is who she is; she can't change who she is, and maybe this is not her time."

Disclosure: I support Barack Obama, and I am a volunteer for his California campaign.

9iu11ani's Daughter Supports Obama

2008-01-05T13:31:00.000-08:00

I knew that Giuliani was estranged from his kids and that his kids were not going to campaign for him, but this tops even that.

Something Strange in Sarasota

2006-11-12T21:57:00.000-08:00

Dan Tokaji's Blog has this:

"Any proposed reforms should of course await the results of the audit and recount to start next week, but one thing is already certain: sound election administration depends on people and procedures, not just machines."

and

"(I)ncidents like those in Carteret County [North Carolina in 2004] and Sarasota County are extremely serious and warrant careful scrutiny.

Fortunately, that appears to be what's happening. A recount of the election, along with an audit of Sarasota County's system, is scheduled to begin Monday. That audit will reportedly include parallel testing of the voting equipment -- a procedure that, in my opinion, should be done routinely in every election. There are a number of possible explanations for the high number of undervotes. One is the configuration of the ballot, which some voters have complained made it difficult to notice the race. Another possibility, and a far more serious one, is that voters actually made a selection for the race but that the machines for whatever reason failed to record them."

The search for the missing votes

2006-11-12T21:44:00.000-08:00

Candidates Head To D.C. As Florida Audits Votes has this regarding the race with the missing 18,000 votes in Katherine Harris' old district:

The audit of Sarasota County's 13th District race will include ballot accounting, tabulator performance and forensic analysis, Secretary of State Sue Cobb said in a letter to Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections Kathy Dent.

Officials will also conduct at least two "parallel tests" of the voting equipment, using four of the spare machines that were not used on election day.

What are the nuts and bolts of how these will be done? Please let me know in the comments.

These Republicans Deserve to Lose

2006-10-26T01:31:00.000-07:00

--AZ-Sen: Jon Kyl

--AZ-01: Rick Renzi

--AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth

--CA-04: John Doolittle

--CA-11: Richard Pombo

--CA-50: Brian Bilbray

--CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave

--CO-05: Doug Lamborn

--CO-07: Rick O'Donnell

--CT-04: Christopher Shays

--FL-13: Vernon Buchanan

--FL-16: Joe Negron

--FL-22: Clay Shaw

--ID-01: Bill Sali

--IL-06: Peter Roskam

--IL-10: Mark Kirk

--IL-14: Dennis Hastert

--IN-02: Chris Chocola

--IN-08: John Hostettler

--IA-01: Mike Whalen

--KS-02: Jim Ryun

--KY-03: Anne Northup

--KY-04: Geoff Davis

--MD-Sen: Michael Steele

--MN-01: Gil Gutknecht

--MN-06: Michele Bachmann

--MO-Sen: Jim Talent

--MT-Sen: Conrad Burns

--NV-03: Jon Porter

--NH-02: Charlie Bass

--NJ-07: Mike Ferguson

--NM-01: Heather Wilson

--NY-03: Peter King

--NY-20: John Sweeney

--NY-26: Tom Reynolds

--NY-29: Randy Kuhl

--NC-08: Robin Hayes

--NC-11: Charles Taylor

--OH-01: Steve Chabot

--OH-02: Jean Schmidt

--OH-15: Deborah Pryce

--OH-18: Joy Padgett

--PA-04: Melissa Hart

--PA-07: Curt Weldon

--PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick

--PA-10: Don Sherwood

--RI-Sen: Lincoln Chafee

--TN-Sen: Bob Corker

--VA-Sen: George Allen

--VA-10: Frank Wolf

--WA-Sen: Mike McGavick

--WA-08: Dave Reichert

My Problem with Christianism

2006-06-07T00:13:00.000-07:00

For once I agree with Andrew Sullivan:

"The number of Christians misrepresented by the Christian right is many. There are evangelical Protestants who believe strongly that Christianity should not get too close to the corrupting allure of government power. There are lay Catholics who, while personally devout, are socially liberal on issues like contraception, gay rights, women's equality and a multi-faith society. There are very orthodox believers who nonetheless respect the freedom and conscience of others as part of their core understanding of what being a Christian is. They have no problem living next to an atheist or a gay couple or a single mother or people whose views on the meaning of life are utterly alien to them--and respecting their neighbors' choices. That doesn't threaten their faith. Sometimes the contrast helps them understand their own faith better.

And there are those who simply believe that, by definition, God is unknowable to our limited, fallible human minds and souls. If God is ultimately unknowable, then how can we be so certain of what God's real position is on, say, the fate of Terri Schiavo? Or the morality of contraception? Or the role of women? Or the love of a gay couple? Also, faith for many of us is interwoven with doubt, a doubt that can strengthen faith and give it perspective and shadow. That doubt means having great humility in the face of God and an enormous reluctance to impose one's beliefs, through civil law, on anyone else.

I would say a clear majority of Christians in the U.S. fall into one or many of those camps. Yet the term "people of faith" has been co-opted almost entirely in our discourse by those who see Christianity as compatible with only one political party, the Republicans, and believe that their religious doctrines should determine public policy for everyone."

Block the Vote

2006-06-01T23:06:00.000-07:00

From the New York Times:

"In a country that spends so much time extolling the glories of democracy, it's amazing how many elected officials go out of their way to discourage voting. States are adopting rules that make it hard, and financially perilous, for nonpartisan groups to register new voters. They have adopted new rules for maintaining voter rolls that are likely to throw off many eligible voters, and they are imposing unnecessarily tough ID requirements."

Being a Democrat is about balance

2006-06-01T19:27:00.000-07:00

Says Claire McCaskill, Democrat for senator from Missouri, in the New Yorker:

"Being a Democrat is about balance. It’s about being moderate and truthful and strong. Harry Truman, leaders like that, they were strong enough to take on foreign enemies when they needed to, but they were also strong enough to know when not to fight, when to use other weapons besides military force. That’s the message the Democratic Party should be sending. We should let the American people know we want to work with allies, work with the U.N., and that we don’t like war, but that we’ll defend this country’s interests with everything we’ve got."

Amen.

I wish I hadn't loved Bush...

2006-05-30T06:20:00.000-07:00

Well look who regrets supporting Bush!

"The Irish Examiner is reporting that shock rocker Marilyn Manson feels partly responsible for George W. Bush winning the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

In an interview with talk show host Tucker Carlson at the time, the controversial rocker sarcastically condemned Democrat candidate Al Gore and told his fans to vote Bush.

Manson says: 'He won by such a small amount, and particularly because it was in Florida.

'Who's to say there weren't a couple of our fans who took my sarcasm seriously and voted for him?'"